Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.
That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Odds as of Tuesday afternoon. Check out PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
How about a little reminder on just how impressively these bets did last season? Props with a Bet Quality of 10 posted a win rate of 60.31%, and props with a Bet Quality of nine won at a 58.82% clip.
As is the case with most sports, betting on unders proved to be more profitable than betting on overs last season:
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 10: 341-172 (66.47%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 9: 457-273 (62.6%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 8: 898-589 (60.39%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 7: 1447-1086 (57.13%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 6: 1992-1663 (54.95%)
Overall, if you just blind bet every under with a Bet Quality of eight or higher, you would’ve won at a 62.1% clip on more than 2,700 bets.
Tonight’s props come from each of the slate’s three games:
- Atlanta Hawks at Miami Heat: 7:30 p.m. ET on NBATV
- Dallas Mavericks at Denver Nuggets: 9 p.m. ET
- Memphis Grizzlies at Los Angeles Lakers: 10:30 p.m. ET on NBATV
Let’s dive in.
Lakers SG Danny Green
THE PICK: Over 8.5 points (-112)[In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
Danny Green is the ultimate glue guy, a two-time NBA champion who has played in the Conference Finals a remarkable five of his nine seasons. He plays elite defense, hits open threes, and does the little things. The one thing he's never really been known for is scoring.
Green averages 9.0 points per game in his career and has never gone over 11.7 in a season. But it looks like he may be on his way to a career year. Green is averaging a career-high 29.0 minutes per game and filling it up with 14.0 points per game. He's also taking (6.3) and making (3.3) more 3-pointers than ever.
The Lakers are still thin with Kyle Kuzma out, and Green is their only reliable wing and knockdown shooter. He's third on the team in minutes and shots behind the two superstars.
Green's scoring can be sporadic — he's scored nine and five the last two games after 28 in the opener — but he's taken at least five threes every game and is seeing enough volume to feel good about hitting this over.I'll play this one all the way to -150 if needed.
Hawks F Jabari Parker
THE PICK: Under 5 rebounds (-114)
Yes, that Jabari Parker. Parker signed with the Hawks this offseason and is actually playing for a team that's one Vince Carter buzzer beater away from a 3-0 start. Parker has averaged just under 21 minutes per game off the bench, scoring 11.3 points per game.
Parker has always been a scorer, but his rebounds have fallen off a cliff so far this season. He has just nine rebounds in three games, with a career-low 7.5% rebounding percentage. That's partly due to sample size and playing tough rebounding opponents, but it also points to Parker's drop-off in athleticism. He's just not a great rebounder — and never really was.
Jabari has gone under his rebounding total all three games this season. Five pushes and gets your money back, so he has to get to six for you to lose, and that's just not likely in 20 minutes. This one is worth playing up to -140.
Mavericks G Luka Doncic
THE PICK: Over 8.5 rebounds (-139)[In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
So much for a sophomore slump. Luka Doncic has come out of the gates on fire in his second season, looking like a potential dark horse MVP candidate. Doncic is averaging 29.3 points, 10.3 rebounds, and 7.3 assists a game, leading the Mavs to a 2-1 record.
Doncic looks like he's in better shape this season, and you can see the results in his minutes load, up from 32.2 per game last year to 36.3 so far this season. That's a 12.7% minutes increase, and the props don't seem to have adjusted for all that extra production yet. Doncic has gone over this rebounding total in all three games.
Our Player Prop tool projects Doncic at 10.2 rebounds tonight, making this a good play as high as -170. In fact, our tool strongly recommends Doncic over 5.5 assists too if you want to double down on a big game. Both props are rated 9 out of 10, but that one's already bet up to -210 so it may not be worth the juice.
