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Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.
That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Odds as of Monday afternoon. Check out PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
How about a little reminder on just how impressively these bets did last season? Props with a Bet Quality of 10 posted a win rate of 60.31%, and props with a Bet Quality of nine won at a 58.82% clip.
As is the case with most sports, betting on unders proved to be more profitable than betting on overs last season:
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 10: 341-172 (66.47%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 9: 457-273 (62.6%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 8: 898-589 (60.39%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 7: 1447-1086 (57.13%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 6: 1992-1663 (54.95%)
Overall, if you just blind bet every under with a Bet Quality of eight or higher, you would’ve won at a 62.1% clip on more than 2,700 bets.
Tonight’s props focus on three of the slate’s 11 games:
- Golden State Warriors at New Orleans Pelicans: 8 p.m. ET on NBATV
- Oklahoma City Thunder at Houston Rockets: 8 p.m. ET
- Denver Nuggets at Sacramento Kings: 10 p.m. ET
Let’s dive in.
Warriors PG Steph Curry
THE PICK: Over 5.5 rebounds (-121)[In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
Rebounding is probably not the first thing you think about with Curry, but he’s actually one of the better rebounders at the point guard position. He’s averaged at least 5.1 rebounds per game in three of the past four seasons, and he’s averaged 6.0 rebounds per game through his first two games this year.
He could improve upon that mark even more going forward. His rebound percentage is up to 11.2% this season, which would represent a new career high over a full year. The Warriors lost a lot of size in the offseason, so it makes sense that Curry would see some additional production in that department.
The only reason he hasn’t averaged more rebounds per game to start the season is that he’s played just 30 minutes in his first two contests. He should see more playing time if the Warriors actually manage to keep this game competitive.
Curry has averaged 7.2 rebounds per 36 minutes this season, so I think there is plenty of value on the over in a fast-paced matchup vs. the Pelicans. I would play it up to -140.
Thunder G Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
THE PICK: Over 4.5 rebounds (+115)
SGA is another guard who’s rebounding ability is being disrespected in the prop market. He’s pulled down at least seven boards in each of his past two games, and he’s averaged 6.3 rebounds per 36 minutes this season.
He has nice rebounding potential today vs. the Rockets in a game that should feature a lot of possessions. The Rockets have played at the fastest pace in the league through the first week of the season, which makes this a nice pace-up spot for the Thunder.
I love the fact that we can grab the over at better than even money, and I like it all the way up to -115.
Kings C Dewayne Dedmon
THE PICK: Under 10.5 points (-115)
Dedmon “exploded” for 11 points in his last contest, but I wouldn’t expect that same kind of production tonight. For starters, Dedmon just ins’t a scorer.
He has never averaged more than 10.8 points per game in a season, and he’s been above 5.1 points per game just twice. Granted, he’s never been a guy who plays a ton of minutes, but he’s still a low usage type of player.
He has a tough matchup today vs. the Denver Nuggets, who figure to be one of the better defensive teams in the league. They currently rank seventh in defensive efficiency this season after finishing 11th last season. Nikola Jokic is also a solid individual defender, ranking 16th in Defensive Real Plus/MInus out of 54 qualifiers at the center position last year.
I have no problem betting against Dedmon scoring points tonight. I’d play the under up to -130.
