The NBA season is off and running, and prop betting season is officially open for business.
Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.
That’s where the Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each play is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Odds as of Friday afternoon. Check out PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
How about a little reminder on just how impressively these bets did last season? Props with a Bet Quality of 10 posted a win rate of 60.31%, and props with a Bet Quality of nine won at a 58.82% clip.
As is the case with most sports, betting on unders proved to be more profitable than betting on overs last season:
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 10: 341-172 (66.47%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 9: 457-273 (62.6%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 8: 898-589 (60.39%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 7: 1447-1086 (57.13%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 6: 1992-1663 (54.95%)
Overall, if you just blind bet every under with a Bet Quality of eight or higher, you would’ve won at a 62.1% clip on more than 2,700 bets.
Tonight’s props focus on two of the slate’s nine games:
- Washington Wizards at Oklahoma City Thunder: 8:00 p.m. ET
- Portland Trail Blazers at Sacramento Kings: 10:00 p.m. ET
Lets dive in.
Thunder G Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
THE PICK: Over 3.5 rebounds (-175) | Over 3.5 assists (-141)
I am buying all the Gilgeous-Alexander stock right now. He saw a big workload for the Thunder in their first game of the season, scoring 26 points in 37 minutes.
His production in the peripheral categories was far less impressive — he logged just two rebounds and one assist — but those numbers should increase if he continues to play big minutes. SGA averaged 4.5 assists and 3.8 rebounds per 36 minutes as a rookie, so there’s no reason to expect him not to improve on those marks this year.
He’s in a fantastic spot today vs. the Washington Wizards. They were one of the worst teams in the league in terms of defensive efficiency and rebound rate last season, and they played at the 12th-fastest pace during their first game this season. There should be plenty of opportunities for SGA to pile up stats in this contest.
Both of these props are a little pricier than usual, but both stand out as excellent investments in the Prop tool. I would be willing to play the rebound prop up to -190 and the assist prop up to -175.
Blazers PF Zack Collins
THE PICK: Over 6.5 rebounds (-110)
Collins managed just five rebounds in his first game this season, but there are reasons to believe he can improve on that mark moving forward. For starters, he played a whopping 31 minutes in that contest. He averaged just 15.8 minutes and 17.6 minutes in his first two seasons, so that represents a massive increase in playing time.
Collins isn’t exactly a rebound monster, but he’s better than what he displayed in his last game. He’s averaged 8.1 rebounds per 36 minutes throughout his career, so this mark seems low given his bump in playing time.
He also has an above average matchup vs. the Kings. They ranked just 24th in rebound rate last season, and they also played at one of the fastest paces in the league. The Kings will also be without Marvin Bagley tonight, who is one of their better individual rebounders.
I think Collins should bounce back on the boards tonight, so I’d play this prop up to -130.
Kings PG De’Aaron Fox
THE PICK: Over 6.5 assists (+103)
Fox struggled in his first game of the season, which the Kings ultimately lost by 29 points to the Phoenix Suns. Fox was limited to just 26.5 minutes in that contest, but he was still able to hand out five assists. He should see much more playing time if today’s contest stays competitive, which bodes well for his assist outlook.
Fox averaged 7.3 assists per game last season, and that number was unsurprisingly higher in games where he played significant minutes. He saw at least 29 minutes in 63 games last season, and he handed out at least seven assists in 44 of them (69.8%).
I love the fact that we can get this prop at better than even money, and I would play it at anything better than -130.
