With only two NBA games tomorrow afternoon with the Super Bowl, the spotlight is on the association tonight as the Saturday slate features nine games. Our NBA Model helps us narrow down three player props as our picks for February 11, featuring LaMelo Ball, Darius Garland, and Andrew Wiggins.
Weekend NBA always has a plethora of news, so make sure to monitor all of the updates throughout the day, but lock these in now!
NBA Player Props & Picks
LaMelo Ball Player Prop: Under 8.5 Assists (-122)
| Spread | Nuggets -8 |
| Time | TV | 7 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass |
| Best Line | FanDuel Sportsbook |
Pick: LaMelo Ball Under 8.5 Assists |
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Leading off our NBA Saturday slate of player props is Hornets stud point guard LaMelo Ball. A big reason why the Hornets are tied for the worst record in the Eastern Conference has been the absence of Ball, who has missed 17 games. The Hornets are eight-point home underdogs against the Nuggets tonight.
Reaching nine or more assists has been a tough feat for Ball this season. He is averaging a career-high eight per game but has failed to accumulate nine in eight of his last 10 games. FanDuel Sportsbook is giving great odds at Ball hitting this under yet again. I would bet this even at 7.5 assists in this matchup.
The Nuggets are the best team in the Western Conference with a record of 38-18. They have the third-best point differential and have Nikola Jokic, who is the favorite to win his third-straight MVP award. In their six-game losing streak, the Hornets have lost by an average of 10.5 points per game. The playing time for Ball could be up in the air if this game got away from them.
Our NBA Model has Ball projected for only 7.3 assists, which is over one assist short of this player prop. This line may move down to 7.5 assists, but I would still take that as well. Ball has failed to reach eight or more assists in six of his last 10 games. Either way, feel confident in Ball not getting it done tonight.
Darius Garland Player Prop: Under 11.5 Rebounds+Assists (-135)
| Spread | Cavaliers -5 |
| Time | TV | 8 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
After not making any moves at the trade deadline, the Cavaliers will roll with what they have heading into the second half of the season. Acquiring Donovan Mitchell in the offseason has proven to be well worth it, as the Cavaliers have a record of 36-22, fourth best in the Eastern Conference.
The Cavaliers have won five consecutive games by an average of 19.2 points. They will host the Bulls as five-point home favorites tonight. The backcourt of Mitchell and Darius Garland are both averaging career-highs in points in their first season playing together.
Surprisingly, Garland has seen a dip in his peripherals, which is what we are targeting for this player prop. Garland is averaging 10.8 combined rebounds and assists this season, while hitting the under on this prop in each of his last three games. Our NBA Model has Garland projected for only 9.4 combined rebounds and assists tonight, which is well below this 11.5 prop line.
Garland's assist prop of under 7.5 at juiced odds was intriguing, but adding his rebounds seemed like the logical choice. Garland has recorded two or fewer rebounds in six of his last seven games. This game also has the chance to get out of hand as the Cavaliers are 23-6 at home, while the Bulls are just 10-18 on the road. Take the under on Garland's assists and rebounds in this matchup.
Andrew Wiggins Player Prop: Over 23.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists (118)
| Spread | Warriors -2 |
| Time | TV | 8:30 p.m. ET | ABC |
| Best Line | FanDuel SportsBook |
Andrew Wiggins has by far the best over props in our NBA Model for tonight's slate. Picking which prop was the hardest part, but his over points, rebounds, and assists grades out the best. Our Model has Wiggins projected for 28.1 points, rebounds, and assists in this spot, which is well over the 23.5 prop line.
Wiggins has been very inconsistent recently, but a matchup against the Lakers brings out the best in everyone. This matchup features a very high total of 238.5 points, as these teams play at the top two fastest paces in the league this season. Expect a flurry of points scored and opportunities in general.
Not only do the Lakers rank second in pace overall, but they also rank 20th in defensive rating. Combine the two and they are allowing 118.6 points per game, which is the fourth-highest in the league. Even with a healthy Anthony Davis and LeBron James, this is not a good Lakers defensive team. Wiggins will thrive in this matchup.
In his lone matchup against the Lakers this season, Wiggins scored 20 points shooting 8 of 14 from the field and 4 of 7 from behind the arc. He accumulated six rebounds and four assists going well over this prop line. This prop comes down to opportunity and matchup. Wiggins is in a great spot to get over all of his props, especially with Stephen Curry sidelined until the All-Star Break.
