The Super Bowl is more than one week away, so I'm dusting off the NBA props model.
I have my first prop for a bet on Kyrie Irving on Friday night, but I'll be adding more as the day progresses. Keep up with this file to see all of my picks, the first of which is for Mavericks vs. Pistons.
Kyrie Irving Under 5.5 Assists (-115)
Kyrie Irving has only cleared this number in two of his last seven games, but his underlying metrics actually suggest his assist rate should have been even lower.
Over Irving's last seven games, his pass rate has stayed in line with his season rate (1.29 per minute), but his potential assist has been a bit lower (16.4%) than his season average (19%). That means his teammates are taking fewer shots on his passes. Irving's teammates have turned 66% of his potential assists into assists compared to his season rate of 56.5%.
The three players who Irving has dished out the most assists to over this stretch have been P.J. Washington (nine), Olivier-Maxence Prosper (six) and Spencer Dinwiddie (five). All three have been shooting well above expectations on passes from Irving over this stretch.
Washington is 5-of-9 (56%) from beyond the arc (37% on the season) on passes from Irving and Prosper is 7-of-13 (54%, 43% on the season), while Dinwiddie is 7-of-11 (63%) on 2-point shots from Irving (48% on the season). All three players should cool off a bit at Irving's expense, which should make it tougher for him to clear this number.
I'm projecting Irving for closer to 4.9 assists with around a 62% chance to stay under 5.5.
