We have two NBA player props for this Thursday, and our staff of basketball betting experts is focused on some key players who could be in line for noteworthy performances as the regular season picks back up following an exciting few days of Emirates Cup games.
Read below for our NBA player prop picks for Thursday, December 12.
NBA Player Props: Thursday, Dec. 12
- Bam Adebayo Under 17.5 Points (-120, bet365)
- Jalen Duren Under 18.5 Points & Rebounds (-125, DraftKings)
Bam Adebayo Under 17.5 Points (-120)
Raptors vs Heat, 7:30 p.m. ET
Bam Adebayo's role in the Heat's offense has slowly shifted this season. He's become Miami's top distributor, which has led to a decline in scoring. Adebayo has also expanded his range from beyond the arc, with mixed results.
Adebayo is leading the Heat in passes and assists this season. His 5.2 assists per game is the 2nd-best mark of his career. He's averaging 65.5 touches per game, behind only Tyler Herro. This unselfish role has led to declines on the scoring side. Adebayo is averaging 16 points per game, his fewest since 2019-20. His usage rate is the lowest since that same season.
Adebayo's 43.9% field goal percentage sticks out as an avenue for positive regression. He's been above 51% in every season of his career. The key is the shot selection. Adebayo has taken 20.7% of his shots from 3-point range this season. That might not seem like much, but it's 5x more than his previous career high (4.1%).
Adebayo is shooting just 33.3% from beyond the arc. The expanded range has limited him to 9.6 shots per game from the paint this season. Adebayo averaged 11.6 field goal attempts in the paint over the past three seasons.
Toronto is 16th in defensive rating and points allowed over the past 10 games. Adebayo faced them twice recently and delivered the type of well-rounded performance we should expect given his role. He posted a triple-double against them on November 29, and then turned around and grabbed 20 rebounds with 7 assists against them on December 1. However, he only scored 14 and 13 points in those two games, respectively. I expect a similar performance from him tonight.
Pick: Bam Adebayo Under 17.5 Points
Jalen Duren Under 18.5 Points & Rebounds (-125)
Pistons vs Celtics, 7:30 p.m.
Jalen Duren has taken a step back in both scoring and rebounding this season. He's also shown a low minutes floor. This is a difficult matchup against a Boston squad that held him in check last week.
Duren is averaging career lows in scoring and shot attempts. He broke out in his sophomore season with 13.8 points on 9.2 field goal attempts per game, but those opportunities have dried up this year.
Duren is taking just 5.3 shots per game. After ranking 2nd on the team in touches (57.6) in 2023-24, he's slid to 5th this season (38.2). New arrivals Tobias Harris and Malik Beasley have leapfrogged him. Jaden Ivey has also passed Duren. He's simply not getting the ball very often.
Duren has also faced renewed competition on the glass. Harris has come in and grabbed 6.9 rebounds on 11.6 rebound chances. Cade Cunningham has made a massive leap, going from 4.2 rebounds on 8.1 rebound chances last year to 7.3 rebounds on 12.3 rebound chances this season.
Duren has still averaged a strong 9.3 rebounds on 17 rebound chances per game this season, but his teammates are cutting into his production. He was at 11.7 and 18.7 last season.
Duren remains an elite offensive rebounder, grabbing 3.0 per game. He was one of just 11 players to do that in 2023-24. Those offensive rebounds led to the 14th-most second-chance points per game in the league last season. That mark has fallen off with the rest of his scoring numbers this year, but Duren is still at 2.6 second-chance points per game.
Boston is holding opponents to the 3rd-fewest second-chance points per game on the season. They're allowing the 7th-fewest offensive rebounds. The return of Kristaps Porzingis has also improved their overall rebound rate. The Celtics are holding centers to the 3rd-fewest points per game and the 5th-fewest rebounds per game. I'll take Duren under 18.5 points + rebounds.
Pick: Jalen Duren Under 18.5 Points & Rebounds
