We have three NBA player props for this Wednesday, and our staff of basketball betting experts is focused on some key players who could be in line for noteworthy performances as we barrel toward the weekend.
Read below for our NBA player prop picks for Wednesday, December 4.
NBA Player Props for Wednesday, Dec. 4
- Damian Lillard Over 24.5 Points (-120, DraftKings)
- Guerschon Yabusele Over 7.5 Rebounds (+110, bet365)
- AJ Green Over 6.5 Points (-115, Caesars)
Hawks vs. Bucks Player Prop Pick
This is a tremendous matchup for Damian Lillard, and he's looked far more like himself this season.
Lillard's first season with Milwaukee was a disappointment. He had one of the worst seasons of his career in terms of shooting and scoring. The main change with his new team was shot selection, as he got away from the approach that had made him one of the most productive scorers in the league.
Lillard took more 3-pointers than 2-pointers in each of his final three seasons with the Blazers, culminating in a career-high 11.2 3-point attempts and 32.2 points per game in 2022-23. Last season, he reverted back to taking more 2s than 3s, and his numbers fell across the board.
Lillard has gotten back to bombing away from deep this season. He's taken 51.8% of his shots from beyond the arc, the 3rd-highest rate of his career. That should be huge in this matchup. Atlanta has allowed the most made 3-pointers per game, the most 3-point attempts per game, and the highest 3-point shooting percentage.
The Hawks have also been on the generous side when it comes to free throws allowed per game, which is Lillard's other main avenue for scoring production.
Milwaukee is only a small favorite here, so this game should be competitive. It's a back-to-back for the Bucks, but Lillard hasn't had any issues with them this season. He's averaged 35 minutes and 27.7 points per game on the second end of back-to-backs (3 games).
Pick: Damian Lillard Over 24.5 Points
Magic vs. 76ers Player Prop Pick
This is a tough matchup, so I'm only betting a half unit here. Orlando ranks 10th in rebounding rate and allows the 3rd-fewest rebounds per game. Despite the challenging spot, Yabusele is well-positioned to have a good game on the glass given Philly's injuries.
Paul George has been ruled out, which means the Sixers will be without three of their top-four rebounders. Andre Drummond and Joel Embiid lead the team in rebounds and rebound chances per game, but both are out tonight. George is 4th in rebounds and 5th in rebound chances. That leaves Yabusele, who ranks 3rd in rebounds and rebound chances in a limited role.
Yabusele drew the start last night and grabbed a season-high 12 rebounds in a difficult matchup against the Knicks. He's now averaged 9 rebounds per game when he's played 30+ minutes this season (6 games).
Adem Bona is the only other available big man for Philly, and he's been sparsely used in his rookie year. Yabusele has a clear path to 30+ minutes tonight, with minimal rebounding competition.
Pick: Guerschon Yabusele Over 7.5 Rebounds
Hawks vs. Bucks Player Prop Bet
By Kyle Murray
AJ Green has quietly carved out a steady role in this Milwaukee rotation, as he has played 21+ minutes in 9 of his last 10 games.
Green is averaging 0.42 points per minute this season, and he also has a great matchup here against the Hawks tonight.
The Hawks rank bottom-10 in the NBA in defense, and they rank top-3 in pace, which results in them allowing the 5th-most points per game. I'll back Green to clear this number against Atlanta today.
Pick: AJ Green Over 6.5 Points
