We have three NBA player props for Monday's 5-game slate, and we're focused on a trio of key players who could be in line for big (or lackluster) performances to start the week.
Kings vs. Spurs will set the stage at 8 p.m. ET, and one of our experts is locked in on Sacramento guard De'Aaron Fox. Our second pick of the day comes from Wizards vs. Rockets, so we will also be taking a look at Washington guard Jordan Poole. The third and final player prop on out experts' betting card is for Clippers vs. Thunder, which will broadcast live on NBA TV.
Continue below for our NBA prop picks for Monday, November 11.
NBA Player Props Monday
- De'Aaron Fox Under 31.5 Points & Assists (-125, Caesars)
- Jordan Poole Under 4.5 Assists (-120, DraftKings)
- Norman Powell Under 21.5 Points (-113, FanDuel)
Kings vs Spurs Player Prop Pick
Fox still leads Sacramento in usage this season, but new addition DeMar DeRozan isn't far behind. Fox's 27.9% usage rate is his lowest since 2018-19. His 20.2% assist rate is the lowest of his career. Fox is down 2+ shots and 2+ points per game from last season. DeRozan has posted a 25.3% usage rate. It's the highest mark for a Fox teammate since Buddy Hield's 26.3% back in 2019-2020.
Sacramento has been staggering their two lead guards, which does give Fox some opportunities with DeRozan on the bench, particularly in the first half. Fox has typically been the first guy subbed out, then he subs in for DeRozan to close the 1st quarter. He gets to lead the 2nd unit for a bit, leading to better production.
When sharing the court with DeRozan, Fox's usage and assist rate both fall by about 1%. I'm not expecting the 8-9 minutes he gets with DeRozan on the bench to be enough to make up for the overall decline in output.
San Antonio ranks 12th in defensive rating and 5th in points allowed per game. They're 22nd in pace. They have allowed the 3rd-fewest assists per game and the 4th-lowest assisted field goal rate. It's a challenging matchup, and Fox's role has diminished this season.
Pick: De'Aaron Fox Under 31.5 Points & Assists (-125)
Wizards vs Rockets Player Prop Pick
I hit this yesterday at 5.5. It closed at 4.5 and remains there today. I still see some value left at that number.
Poole managed just one assist on Sunday for Washington. Bub Carrington once again led the team in passes and potential assists, continuing his takeover of the playmaking duties. In four games this month, Carrington leads the team in passes (54.5), assists (6.5), and potential assists (11). Poole's numbers have slipped to 2 assists on 6.8 potential assists and 33 passes per game. He had averaged a team-leading 6 assists on 15.3 potential assists and 44.3 passes in October.
Houston has allowed the fewest assists per game. They've ceded the 3rd-lowest assisted field goal rate. The Rockets were 3rd in both categories last season. Houston is 7th in defensive rating and has allowed the 4th-fewest points per game.
Pick: Jordan Poole Under 4.5 Assists (-120)
Clippers vs Thunder Player Prop Pick
By Nick Galaida
Powell enters play averaging 25.7 points per game this season, but it remains to be seen how long he can continue his likely unsustainable efficiency from the floor. Powell, a career 47% shooter from the floor and 39.8% from 3-point territory, is shooting 51.5% from the field and 49.4% from long range to begin the new campaign.
On Monday, the Clippers draw a very tough matchup against a Thunder team that defends the perimeter better than almost anyone in the NBA. Through 10 games, their defense has held opponents to the 3rd-lowest success rate on 3-point attempts. Powell would need to be ultra efficient against a good defense to eclipse this market number.
Pick: Norman Powell Under 21.5 Points (-113)
