We have three NBA player props for tonight's huge 12-game slate, and we're focused on some big names who are in line for potentially big games.
Paolo Banchero's absence will be a big one for the Magic, and Franz Wagner is in line to potentially benefit from it. Elsewhere, our experts are fading Victor Wembanyama and backing Chet Holmgren, who goes head-to-head with Nikola Jokic tonight.
Let's dive into our NBA player prop picks for Wednesday night's NBA slate.
NBA Player Props
In the table below, you'll find each of our NBA staff's top player prop picks from today's slate of games. Click on any pick or team logo to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 7 p.m. | |
| 8 p.m. | |
| 9 p.m. | |
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Magic vs. Pacers: Franz Wagner
Franz Wagner
Over 23.5 Points (-109)
Looking at Franz Wagner's game log, this might seem like a bad line. There are specific circumstances that indicate it's too low.
The matchup is great Indiana being one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA and playing at a fast pace. Also, Paolo Banchero not being in the lineup is a huge boost to Wagner's usage, as the only other high-usage guy in this lineup is Jalen Suggs.
Looking at Wagner's numbers, he's hit the over at this number in just one of eight games, but he's failed to play more than 25 minutes due to blowouts (or other factors) in four games. Also, he played with Banchero eating up all the usage in several other games.
Wagner has 19 shot attempts in a few of the games that he played over 30 minutes and should have at least 20 shots in this one, as it should be a close game (5-point spread).
Pick: Franz Wagner Over 23.5 Points (-109)
Spurs vs. Rockets: Victor Wembanyama
Victor Wembanyama
Under 40 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110)
This is a big number considering the matchup and Victor Wembanyama's performance this season. It had ticked down a few stats recently, but it's back up over 40. I'm back in.
Wembanyama's underlying stats have fallen across the board. The additions of veterans like Chris Paul and Harrison Barnes have eased the burden on the young superstar. Wembanyama's usage is down nearly 3%, his rebound rate is down 2.2% and his assist rate has declined by 4%. The touches and shots are still there, but the overall impact has ticked down in most areas.
Houston was a solid defensive team last season and was elite at home. The Rockets are off to a solid start defensively this season, ranking 10th in defensive rating and fifth in points allowed per game. The slight discrepancy there can be explained by Houston playing at the second-slowest pace. The Rockets are also sixth in rebounding rate and first in assists allowed per game.
It's a rough matchup all around for Wemby.
Pick: Victor Wembanyama Under 40 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110)
Thunder vs. Nuggets: Chet Holmgren
Chet Holmgren
Over 16.5 Points (-125)
By Kyle Murray
Chet Holmgren is having a strong season thanks to his 25.7% usage rate (21.8% last season).
While he's coming off one of his worst games of the season, Holmgren now gets a matchup against Denver. He had one of his best games of the season against the Nuggets earlier this season with 25 points. Nikola Jokic is obviously a difficult matchup, especially when it comes to getting in possible foul trouble, but big men have been scoring at ease against Denver. The Nuggets have allowed the sixth-most points per game to opposing bigs this season.
My model projects Holmgren for 21.8 points tonight.
