We have three NBA player prop picks for tonight's deep 13-game slate, and we're focused on some key players who are potentially in line for big performances.
Let's dive into our NBA player props for Friday November 8, featuring NBA picks for Jalen Brunson, Domantas Sabonis, and Andrew Nembhard.
NBA Player Props for Friday
- Andrew Nembhard Under 19.5 Points, Rebounds, & Assists (-125, Caesars)
- Jalen Brunson Under 11.5 Rebounds & Assists (-130, bet365)
- Domantas Sabonis Under 17.5 Points (-130, DraftKings)
Pacers vs Hornets Player Prop Pick
I hit this one comfortably in Nembhard's last game. The line is still 19.5, so I'll gladly hop back on again.
My two main arguments against Nembhard are his decline in playmaking opportunities and Bennedict Mathurin's insertion into the starting lineup. Indiana started the season with Nembhard as a primary distributor, and he posted a team-leading six assists on 10 potential assists and 42.5 passes per game over the first four games.
Then, the Pacers put the ball back in Tyrese Haliburton's hands more often, which reverted Nembhard's passing numbers back to 2023-24 levels.
Mathurin is starting in place of the injured Aaron Nesmith. His presence has hurt Nembhard's usage. With both Mathurin and Haliburton on the court last season, Nembhard's usage declined by 1.6%. His assist rate dropped by 7.7%. In a small sample this season, his usage is down 1.9% and his assist rate is down 6.2% with both Mathurin and Haliburton in the game.
Charlotte is a solid matchup. They rank 24th in defense rating, which is actually a step up from last season (29th), but still bad. The Hornets rank 19th in pace. Indiana could have a good night, I'm just not expecting Nembhard to be overly involved.
Pick: Andrew Nembhard Under 19.5 Points, Rebounds, & Assists
Bucks vs Knicks Player Prop Pick
By Allan Lem
Brunson has been under 11.5 rebounds & assists in all seven games so far this season. He's averaging 2.6 rebounds per game off of 5.7 rebound chances and 5.7 assists per game off of 10.7 potential assists. This puts him at an average of 8.3 rebounds & assists per game over 16.4 combined chances.
In order to get more than this 11.5 number, he'd have to convert nearly 73% of his rebound and assist chances, assuming he sees around 16.4 chances on Friday. That's a fairly high number that I'm willing to target.
In terms of the matchup, it grades out as fairly neutral. Milwaukee has allowed the 12th-most rebounds per game in the league, but only the 18th-most assists per game. The RotoGrinders projections have Brunson projected for 8.28 rebounds & assists, although that is with Cameron Payne in projections, and he's currently questionable.
If he misses another game, Brunson could see another few minutes given their lack of guard depth, but regardless, I still like attacking this under at 11.5.
Pick: Jalen Brunson Under 11.5 Rebounds & Assists
Clippers vs Kings Player Prop Pick
By Nick Galaida
Sabonis has gone under this market number in each of his last four games. Even more notable, is the fact that he has not taken more than 11 shots in any of those games.
His 11.5 field goal attempts per game is significantly lower than his volume from last season, due in part to the arrival of DeMar DeRozan, who is averaging a team-high 25.6 points.
Sabonis has taken on even more of a facilitator role to begin this season, and he now finds himself 4th on the team in field goal attempts per game. The math favors the under.
Pick: Domantas Sabonis Under 17.5 Points
