We have three NBA player props for Saturday, and our staff of basketball betting experts is focused on some key players who could be in line for noteworthy performances to kick off the weekend.
Grizzlies vs. Bulls sets the stage at 8 p.m. ET on NBA TV, and one of our experts will be betting on Memphis forward Jaren Jackson in the scoring market. Our second pick of the day comes from Trail Blazers vs. Rockets, which is also scheduled for 8 p.m. ET, where two of our experts are fading Blazers guard Anfernee Simons
Read below for our NBA player prop picks for Saturday, November 23.
NBA Player Props for Saturday
- Jaren Jackson Over 21.5 Points (-110, DraftKings)
- Anfernee Simons Under 4.5 Assists (-141, DraftKings)
- Anfernee Simons Under 24.5 Points, Rebounds, & Assists (-129, Caesars)
Grizzlies vs. Bulls Player Prop Pick
Trying to figure out the minutes for the Grizzlies can be infuriating, but even if we assume that Jackson is only going to play 30 minutes, this line is a bit low.
Jackson has been great in this offense without Ja, who should be out again today. The matchup is one of the best in the league against the Bulls, who are a top-2 pace team and a bottom-4 defensive team on the season and don't have anyone to stop Jackson.
The total is sky high, sitting at 241, and with a 5.5-point spread, this game should likely stay close. RotoGrinders has Jackson projected for a full 4 points over this number, and while my projections aren't that high, I still project the over as a large edge here.
Pick: Jaren Jackson Over 21.5 Points
Trail Blazers vs. Rockets Player Props
Houston suffocated this Portland offense on Friday, and these two teams are running it back tonight. I'm expecting another dismal performance from the Blazers.
Simons has averaged 3.9 assists on 8.5 potential assists this season. He got shut out in that department yesterday. It certainly didn't help that Portland shot 33% from the field. Deandre Ayton's absence was also a factor. Simons' assist rate has decreased by 8.3% with Ayton off the floor this season. Ayton is trending toward another absence tonight.
The Rockets are an extremely difficult matchup. They're allowing the fewest assists per game and the lowest assisted field goal rate. Houston is 2nd in defensive rating and 3rd in points allowed per game.
Scoot Henderson's potential return would probably knock this line down to 3.5. Henderson leads the team in passes, assists, and potential assists. Simons' assist rate takes another big hit when Henderson is on the floor.
We don't need Henderson to play for this pick to have good value, but it would be a nice bonus.
Pick: Anfernee Simons Under 4.5 Assists
Trail Blazers vs. Rockets Player Props
By Allan Lem
Simons just faced this Rockets team on Friday and finished with 10 points, rebounds, & assists (PRA) over 21 minutes. He had missed the last three games due to illness and a hand injury, so it's possible he's still feeling the effects of it.
For the season, Simons is averaging just 21.5 PRA, so we're getting an opening number already higher than his season averages. The appeal for me is the matchup, as the Rockets rank 2nd in defensive efficiency, allow the fewest assists per game (21.4), and allow the 3rd-fewest points per game (105.1).
The Blazers are also 11.5-point road underdogs in this matchup, which increases the chances of a potential blowout and Simons not seeing a full rotation at the end of the game.
The Blazers are likely without Deandre Ayton again on Saturday, and it's possible we see Robert Williams sit on this back-end game, which would mean Simons would have to carry the offense more.
At the same time, Scoot Henderson was questionable on Friday before getting ruled out, so it's possible he returns on Saturday, which could cut into Simons' playing time.
Given how rusty he looked on Friday, and how difficult of a matchup this is, I like under 24.5 PRA for Simons tonight.
Pick: Anfernee Simons Under 24.5 Points, Rebounds, & Assists
