We have three NBA player props for Tuesday, and our staff of basketball betting experts is focused on some key players who could be in line for noteworthy performances tonight.
Continue below for our NBA player prop picks for Tuesday, November 26.
NBA Player Props for Tuesday, Nov. 26
- Alex Sarr Over 10.5 Points (-115, Caesars)
- Jimmy Butler Over 20.5 Points (-115, bet365)
- Jabari Smith Under 0.5 Assists (+170, bet365)
Bulls vs Wizards Player Prop Pick
This game has a massive 245 total, and with a 4.5-point spread, it should stay close. Jordan Poole is currently listed as questionable, and while him being out may slightly increase the chance of a blowout, I still think this game stays close.
We don't have a huge sample size of Sarr without Poole on the floor, but he does have a 2% usage increase in 125 minutes. The matchup here is the best possible one for increased production for all players on the floor.
Both of these teams are top 4 in pace and bottom 3 in defense. Everything points toward the over on nearly every guy on the floor, and Sarr should be in for increased shot volume.
Pick: Alex Sarr Over 10.5 Points
Bucks vs Heat Player Props
By Jim Turvey
I love when a play checks both narrative and statistical boxes. This will be Butler's first Emirates Cup game of the season, and it comes against a team he has plenty of actual playoff experience (and success) against.
In his 3 Cup games last season, Butler averaged 25 points per game, which might seem like noise for most players in a 3-game sample, but we've seen Butler pick his spots his whole career.
One of those spots was the 2023 First Round against these Bucks when he averaged 37.6 PPG against an admittedly banged-up Bucks squad.
Butler is averaging just 19.2 PPG this season, but that number is skewed by a game he had to leave early. Remove that game and he's at 21.1 PPG. This is a mediocre Bucks defense which he has picked apart before, especially in games where he hits the gas a bit harder.
I'll be sprinkling 30+ as well, a number he has reached each of his two games since returning from injury.
Pick: Jimmy Butler Over 20.5 Points
Rockets vs Timberwolves Player Props
I'm just going a half-unit here since it's a bit of a longshot. I'm intrigued by the value and would price this closer to even money.
Smith has posted a career-low 3.9% assist rate. He's averaging 0.8 assists on 1.6 potential assists this season. Those marks have ticked down to 0.5 assists on 1.2 potential assists in November (13 games). Smith is making 20.8 passes per game, down from 31.5 in 2023-24 and 31.7 in 2022-23. He basically gets one chance each game to record an assist, which is a tricky proposition in this matchup.
Minnesota has allowed the 4th-fewest assists per game. They're holding opponents to the 4th-lowest assisted field goal rate. Houston leads the league in both categories, so it's a bottom-3 matchup for Smith (since he doesn't face his own team). The Timberwolves also excel at defending the 3-point line, ranking 3rd in made 3s allowed and 11th in 3-point percentage.
I checked all 14 of Smith's assists this season, and 8 of them were on 3-pointers. That's a healthy rate considering Houston is one of the worst outside shooting teams in the league. All but two of Smith's dimes in November were on 3-pointers.
It's not an ideal formula against this Minnesota defense. Jalen Green is also questionable, and Smith's assist rate has dropped by 0.5% with him off the floor.
Pick: Jabari Smith Under 0.5 Assists
