Tonight, there is just a two-game slate as the Heat look to stave off elimination and the Warriors look to take a commanding 3-1 lead. The three players I will be targeting tonight are Kel'el Ware, Max Strus, and Jalen Green.
Continue below for my NBA player props for Monday's first-round playoff games.
NBA Player Props for Monday, April 28
- Kel'el Ware Over 5.5 Points (-120, Fanatics)
- Max Strus Over 2.5 Three-Pointers Made (+120, Fanatics)
- Jalen Green Under 18.5 Points (-125, Fanatics)
Kel'el Ware Over 5.5 Points
Cavaliers vs Heat, 7:30 p.m. ET
An elimination game may not be the time to trust a rookie. However, Kel'el Ware has entrenched himself in Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra's rotation. He earned 36 starts in the regular season as well as the first three games and 19 minutes per game in this series.
Dating back to the regular season, Ware has scored six points in 19 of his past 20 games. While the lone miss came in Game 1, he has cleared this line with seven and eight points in the last two games. Ware has gone 3-for-5 from the field in each of the last two games. That matches his true shooting percentage from the regular season.
Ware helps Miami space the floor from the center position. He has knocked down three triples in his last two games. He may clear this line with two threes, which is +145 tonight. Either way, I like his chances of scoring six points tonight.
Pick: Kel'el Ware Over 5.5 Points (-120, Fanatics)
Max Strus Over 2.5 Three-Pointers Made
Cavaliers vs Heat, 7:30 p.m. ET
Max Strus spent three years in Miami before signing with the Cleveland Cavaliers. He has scored 10 points in four of his last six games against his former team, finishing with nine points in another. He also enters tonight's game having cleared 10 points in four of his last six games, scoring nine in one as well.
If Strus landing on nine points appears to be a trend, it is because he gets the bulk of his points from behind the arc. He made 2.3 threes per game in the regular season. He has also knocked 11-of-22 three-point attempts through the first three games in this series.
Miami is an excellent matchup for him because it ranked 21st in three-point percentage and 23rd against small forwards. The Cavaliers have 15+ threes, attempted 40+, and scored 120+ points in all three games in this series. Strus has made three triples or more in six consecutive games. I expect that trend to continue tonight.
Pick: Max Strus Over 2.5 Three-Pointers Made (+120, Fanatics)
Jalen Green Under 18.5 Points
Rockets vs Warriors, 10:00 p.m. ET
In Game 2, Jalen Green exploded for 38 points, but against the Warriors, that would certainly qualify as an outlier for him. In Game 1, he scored seven points on 3-for-15 from the field, and in Game 3, he scored nine points on 4-for-11 from the field. Green has now scored 19 points or less in 13-of-17 career games against Golden State.
Down 2-1, Houston could use a big performance from him to head back home with the series even at two. It desperately needs him to space them, given the bigger and defensive-focused lineups that head coach Ime Udoka likes to use. However, Steve Kerr knows that as well. In Game 3, Gary Payton II saw nine more minutes, and his ball pressure frustrated Green and Houston's offense.
Payton is available again tonight, and Jimmy Butler may be back as well. Despite their presence, this may be an uncomfortable under because of Green's volume. He attempted 17 field goals per game in the regular season, and he has matched that number in this series.
However, he is averaging 14.6 points while shooting 35% from the field in his last 10 games against the Warriors. I expect the Warriors defense to keep him in check once again.
Pick: Jalen Green Under 18.5 Points (-125, Fanatics)
