It feels so good to have basketball back in our lives! Welcome to the first weekend of the NBA season, where we have a massive 10-game slate scheduled for this Saturday.
Continue below for my NBA player props and my NBA picks for Saturday, October 26.
NBA Player Props for Saturday, October 25
- Paolo Banchero Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made (-106, FanDuel)
- Patrick Williams Under 11.5 Points (-120, DraftKings)
Leading us off with the best value prop on the board in our Prop Model is Magic's All Star Paolo Banchero. The Magic have started out of the gates fast with a 2-0 record beating the beating the Heat and Nets. They scored 116 in both contests and are one-point road underdogs against the Grizzlies tonight in what will be a fantastic matchup.
Banchero is coming off a fantastic sophomore season where he led the Magic in points, rebounds, and assists. He averaged a career-high in each statistic, while shooting 45.5% from the field and 33.9% from behind the arc. He is off to an even better start this year averaging more points, rebounds, and assists per game, while shooting a blistering 50% from downtown. That is where we will target Banchero against the Grizzlies. His over 1.5 3-pointers made.
Our Prop Model has Banchero projected to make 3.8 3-pointers tonight, which is a large over projection for his 1.5 prop line. Taking his alternative line at 3+ 3-pointers made is +250 on DraftKings could be a great ladder bet.
Banchero poured in four 3-pointers against the Heat in the season opener, but had only one last game. He is not known for his perimeter shot, but Banchero is projected for a 32.2% usage rate. He has averaged a 28.9% usage rate in the first two games.
This is a great matchup for Banchero to get hot from the perimeter. Last season the Grizzlies allowed opponents to shoot 37.8% from long distance, which was the fourth-highest in the league. They are off to a similar start this season allowing 39.1%.
With a high projection and getting a great value on FanDuel, this is the best prop available tonight.
Pick: Paolo Banchero Over 1.5 3-Pointers Made (-106, FanDuel)
One of my favorite situations to target is an under bet on a role player when their team is a double-digit underdog. That is exactly what we have with Bulls' forward Patrick Williams, who has several high value player props to target in our prop model. A career 9.7 points per game contributor, Williams points prop line is a too high for this matchup.
The Bulls are 10-point home underdogs against the Thunder, implied for only 111.25 points. Tonight is the second leg of a back-to-back where they upset the Bucks last night 133-122. However, the Thunder are a much more difficult matchup. They ranked fourth in defensive rating last season and are first this season after holding the Nuggets to only 87 points in their season opener. And the Thunder defend the perimeter even better now with newly acquired Alex Caruso.
Williams is projected for only 7.1 points in this tough spot, which is well under his points prop on DraftKings of 11.5 points. I would consider taking this under even at 9.5 points.
It is difficult to envision Williams scoring double-digit points in what's projected to be a blowout against the Thunder. With a 12.1% projected usage rate and never posting a usage rate above 16.7% in any season, Williams probably won't get many scoring opportunities tonight.
The Thunder were able to shut down one of the best teams in the league on the road last game, and will likely do the same against a Bulls team who is projected to be one of the worst in the league this year. Being a 3-and-D specialist with the lowest usage rate in the starting lineup is not a player worth targeting. Bet on Williams to stay under his points total tonight.
