We have a total of three NBA player props for this Thursday, and our staff of basketball betting experts is focused on some key players who could be in line for noteworthy performances in tonight's contests.
Read below for our NBA player prop picks for Thursday, February 6.
NBA Player Props for Thursday, February 6
- Aaron Holiday Under 7.5 Points (-118)
- Zach LaVine 30+ Points, Rebounds, & Assists (-105)
- Anthony Davis Under 40.5 Points, Rebounds, & Assists (-115)
Aaron Holiday Under 7.5 Points (-118)
Rockets vs Timberwolves, 8 p.m. ET
A few books seem confident that Aaron Holiday will draw the start and play decent minutes. Fred VanVleet is out again, so there's a void in the starting lineup. Houston just has so many alternatives, particularly bigger wings who would make more sense in this matchup.
VanVleet has missed 5 games this season. They've been spread evenly throughout the season, so the Rockets' roster has looked different in each situation. In November, it was Amen Thompson drawing the start (Jabari Smith Jr. was still healthy and starting). Same thing in December with Thompson getting the nod. In January, it was Jeff Green stepping in for VanVleet. On Monday, Tari Eason started in VanVleet's spot. On Tuesday, it was Holiday, but Eason missed that game.
RotoGrinders has Eason projected to start tonight, with Thompson sliding to PG. That seems like the most likely route given the available Rockets. Holiday has started in place of VanVleet on 1 of 5 occasions, and it was with the more logical choice (Eason) injured. Holiday has averaged 4.3 points in 11.3 minutes per game in 35 games off the bench. And even if he does start, the floor is low. He played just 14 minutes on Tuesday, ceding most of the point guard playing time to Reed Sheppard. The rookie has played sporadically this season but earned a career-high 28 minutes in that game.
Minnesota is 6th in defensive rating on the season and 6th over the past 10 games. They're 4th in points allowed per game on the season and 6th over the past 10 games. Minnesota has limited point guards to the 8th-fewest points per game. They're top 5 in 3-point makes allowed and 3-point percentage. Holiday has taken 67% of his shots from beyond the arc and scored 61% of his points from 3-pointers.
Pick: Aaron Holiday Under 7.5 Points (-118)
Zach LaVine 30+ Points, Rebounds, & Assists (-105)
Kings vs Trail Blazers, 10 p.m. ET
I'm taking the alternate line of 30+ Points + Rebounds + Assists (PRA) over at DraftKings because I like the odds better than the normal line. Most books have moved pretty heavily toward the over, but DK is lacking at the moment.
Zach LaVine had a rough first game for the Kings, but he should figure things out soon enough, and he gets a decent matchup here.
The total is great (230), and with a 1-point spread, the game should stay close.
We obviously don't have much of a sample size of how LaVine will operate in this offense, but he should get similar usage to what he got over in Chicago, which is more than enough to justify this Over.
Pick: Zach LaVine 30+ Points, Rebounds, & Assists (-105)
Anthony Davis Under 40.5 Points, Rebounds, & Assists (-115)
Dallas vs Celtics, 7.30 p.m. ET
Davis was upgraded to questionable today, so he's trending toward making his Mavs debut. He had been sidelined for a week with an abdominal issue prior to the trade from the Lakers.
Davis gets a tough draw in his first game with Dallas. Boston is top 5 in defensive rating and points allowed per game this season. They're 4th in both metrics over the past 10 games. The Celtics allow the 3rd-fewest assists per game. They've been tough on centers, allowing the 2nd-fewest points, 7th-fewest rebounds, and 3rd-fewest assists. Davis will be playing as a power forward alongside Daniel Gafford at times, so the positional matchup might not be as relevant. But, I'm expecting Gafford to limit Davis on the glass.
Rebounding has been one of Boston's few flaws this season. They're 17th in rebounding rate and 21st in rebounds allowed per game. If Davis has a big PRA game, it's likely driven by rebounding in this matchup. That's where Gafford comes in. He's posted massive rebounding opportunity numbers since Dereck Lively went down, averaging 20.2 rebound chances per game. Davis was at 19.4 rebound chances per game with the Lakers, well ahead of 2nd place (LeBron James at 11.6). Gafford will be providing much more competition for rebounds than Davis has experienced so far this season.
Davis had 24 points, 8 rebounds, and 3 assists against the Celtics a couple weeks back. That seems like a reasonable outcome here, especially with a potential minutes cap coming off the injury.
Pick: Anthony Davis Under 40.5 Points, Rebounds, & Assists (-115)
