We have a total of three NBA player props for this Thursday, and our staff of basketball betting experts is focused on some key players who could be in line for noteworthy performances in tonight's contests.
Read below for our NBA player prop picks for Thursday, January 9.
NBA Player Props for Thursday, January 9
- Jaren Jackson
- Scottie Barnes
- Bradley Beal
Jaren Jackson Under 22.5 Points (-115)
Rockets vs. Grizzlies, 8:00 p.m. ET
The Grizzlies' situation is murky tonight with all three of their best players listed as questionable.
Jaren Jackson's points prop stands out as one being close to his ceiling regardless of how the news shakes out. He's averaging 22.7 points per game and gets an extremely difficult matchup, so I see multiple ways this could break in our favor.
Ja Morant is the big one. With Morant on the floor, Jackson's usage rate collapses by 7.8%. Jackson has still managed to average 21.4 PPG in the 18 games he's played with Morant, but he's shot 52.7% from the field and 42.5% from 3-point range in those contests.
Those are much better than his season-long rates and will be tough to replicate against Houston.
Jackson doesn't see a huge decline with Desmond Bane in the lineup, but the drop isn't nearly as drastic, but it still exists. His usage falls by 1.1% with Bane on the floor, and he's taken 1.4 fewer shots in the games they've played together.
Jackson is averaging 22.1 PPG in 26 games with Bane in the lineup alongside him.
Houston is one of the best defenses in the league. They rank 3rd in defensive rating and points allowed per game.
The Rockets had hefty home/road defensive splits last season, but they've cleaned that up this year. Only the Celtics and Thunder have a better defensive rating on the road.
Houston is 6th in opponent points in the paint per game and 2nd in made 3-pointers allowed per game, and those are Jackson's primary sources of scoring.
Maybe everyone but Jackson sits and this ends up being a fair line. Maybe Jackson himself sits and it doesn't matter. I like grabbing this line before the books have all that information.
Pick: Jaren Jackson Under 22.5 Points (-115)
