We have a 4-game slate scheduled in the NBA this Thursday, where three of the matchups have at least one team on the second night of a back to back. The Mavericks and Rockets are the only rested matchup, so we may be able to exploit some rest advantages today.
Read below for my NBA player props and my NBA picks for Thursday, October 31.
NBA Player Props for Thursday, October 31
- Jabari Smith Under 6.5 Rebounds (+115, bet365)
- Chris Paul Under 1.5 Three-Pointers Made (-188, DraftKings)
- Zach Edey Over 13.5 PTS + REB + AST (-115, bet365)
The Houston Rockets head to Dallas to get a Mavericks team playing already at mid season form. The spread has taken clear Dallas action, and the total has dropped to the under. I am looking for ways to fade the Rockets and believe this prop under on Jabari Smith rebounds is the perfect way.
The Mavericks have a rotation of bigs that provide excellent rebounding, as well as players like PJ Washington and Luka Doncic who also crash the defensive glass. Limiting possessions is key for Jason Kidd's coaching philosophy.
The Rockets seem to play through Sengun and Jalen Green when those two are healthy, and Jabari becomes the odd man out. I expect him to remain a floor spacer on offense, and boxed out on defense.
This prop opened +120 at a few books and that is no longer available, but above +110, which is readily available, I like it. 1unit.
Pick: Jabari Smith Under 6.5 Rebounds (+115)
This is an early season travel fade for a veteran on the second night of a back to back. The trip to Utah, into elevation, especially early in the season is a daunting spot for the combination young and old Spurs.
I would imagine Paul plays reduced minutes, has tired legs, and shoots less 3s. His shot has been short, which is naturally a sign of age and lack of strength and explosiveness on the jump.
I hate paying -188 for a prop, so play small, like go for half-unit of return. This is priced north of -210 most other places, so I still think it has some market value despite the heavy juice.
Pick: Chris Paul Under 1.5 Three-Pointers Made (-188)
This price is readily available and another strong prop angle for a Memphis back to back situation. After losing to the Nets, they now face a (theoretical) Eastern Conference contender in the Milwaukee Bucks.
Ja Morant confirmed he will play, which is a plus for Edey on the pick and roll. We saw Marcus Smart and Desmond Bane get injured in the first game, so its possible one or both of them sit.
Jaren Jackson Jr dealt with early hamstring issues, and although he is back, his minutes may a bit reduced on the second night.
Edey will have to play at least his normal allotment of minutes, and the game is already trending three points toward the over since open. He can stuff the stat sheet, and this should be the night where the preseason favorite for Rookie of the Year delivers.
Pick: Zach Edey Over 13.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-115)
