We have three NBA player prop picks for tonight's relatively light 3-game slate, and we're focused on some key players who are potentially in line for big games.
Our experts are focused on one matchup in particular today, as the Portland Trail Blazers (3-5) visit the San Antonio Spurs (3-5), with tipoff from the Frost Bank Center set for 8:00 p.m. ET on NBA League Pass.
Let's dive into our NBA player props for Thursday night's NBA slate.
NBA Player Props for Thursday
- Anfernee Simons Under 3.5 Rebounds (-135, DraftKings)
- Stephon Castle Over 14.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-108, Caesars)
Trail Blazers vs Spurs Prop Pick: Fade Anfernee Simons
I went down a Simons rebounding rabbit hole today. I knew he was the weakest rebounder in the starting lineup. He's well behind Portland's other four starters in both rebounds and rebound chances. So, I went to Simons' game log to check for anything out of the ordinary. Here are his rebound totals so far: 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 4, 8, 1.
The 8-rebound game obviously sticks out, so I had to figure out what happened there. It was a November 2 game against Phoenix. The first thing that stood out was that every starter on both teams had 5+ rebounds. When I checked the shooting numbers, it made sense. The Blazers and Suns combined to shoot a disgusting 35.3% from the field. Portland pulled down 56 rebounds, and Phoenix grabbed 63. For context, Memphis was dead last in FG% at 43.5% last season. Golden State led the league with 49.5 rebounds per game.
This one outlier game is skewing Simons' overall rebound numbers. He's averaging 2.6 rebounds on 6.3 rebound chances this season. If you remove the Phoenix game, he's down to 1.9 rebounds on 5.4 rebound chances. San Antonio is 7th in rebounding rate and 24th in pace. This line is a rebound too high for me.
Trail Blazers vs Spurs Prop Pick: Bet on Stephon Castle
We aren't sure if Devin Vassell is going to play for San Antonio tonight, but I don't expect him to. With Jeremy Sochan out, Stephon Castle will likely start again.
Castle hasn't been great this season, shooting just 30% from the field and 14.3% from beyond the arc, but at some point, those numbers have to see some positive regression. He may not be fully NBA ready, but he should be putting up better numbers, and he should play minutes in the high 20s today.
RotoGrinders has Castle projected for 3 PRA over his PRA-line set for this contest, and there's a good chance we'll see this number rise leading up to game time, so get in early if you're going to bet it.
