We have three NBA player props for this Monday, and our staff of basketball betting experts is focused on some key players who could be in line for noteworthy performances to start the week.
Read below for our NBA player prop picks for Monday, December 16.
NBA Player Props: Monday, Dec. 16
- Tyrese Maxey Under 5.5 Assists (+120, DraftKings)
- Ayo Dosunmu Under 14.5 Points (-120, DraftKings)
- Jakob Poeltl Over 16.5 Points (-120, bet365)
Tyrese Maxey Under 5.5 Assists (+120)
76ers vs. Hornets, 7:00 p.m. ET
Hello, old friend. The under on Tyrese Maxey's assists prop has been one of my most frequent bets over the past two seasons. He's had significant splits based on Joel Embiid's availability. The emergence of Jared McCain had boosted Maxey's assists, even when Embiid was out, so I'd backed off this pick. With McCain also out tonight, I'm jumping back in.
Maxey averaged 6.7 assists in the 34 games he played with Embiid in 2023-24, compared to 5.5 assists in 32 games without him. His assist rate fell by 1.7%.
This season, Maxey's assist rate is down 2.5% with Embiid on the bench. He's averaged 4.9 assists in 13 games without Embiid. With the sharp-shooting McCain off the floor, Maxey's assist rate has fallen by 4.9%.
In small-ish sample with Paul George (174 minutes), Maxey's assist rate is down 7.6%. There's some overlap there with Embiid/McCain off the floor, and we're chopping up a bunch of splits at this point.
The main idea is that Maxey is averaging 5.2 assists on 10.7 potential assists this season. He's going to have a tough time exceeding those averages tonight given the current Philly roster.
Charlotte is a neutral matchup. They rank 16th in assists allowed and 18th in opponent assisted field goal rate. Charlotte is 20th in defensive rating and 25th in pace. They've held point guards to the 10th-fewest assists per game.
Pick: Tyrese Maxey Under 5.5 Assists
Ayo Dosunmu Under 14.5 Points (-120)
Bulls vs. Raptors, 7:30 p.m. ET
I know that Ayo Dosunmu has been playing some solid basketball recently, but this line is heavily inflated, and Dosunmu is due for some negative regression.
In the last five games, Dosunmu is shooting 63.5% from the field and 52.2% from beyond the arc. He's not getting a ton of volume, and even in a good matchup here, I don't expect him to get more volume than he's been getting lately.
Historically, Dosunmu is a 50% shooter and a 36.5% shooter from beyond the arc, and even if Zach LaVine (questionable) sits, this line is likely still a bit too high.
Pick: Ayo Dosunmu Under 14.5 Points
Jakob Poeltl Over 16.5 Points (-120)
Bulls vs. Raptors, 7:30 p.m. ET
Jakob Poeltl has broken out offensively this season and he's well-positioned for another strong game tonight. Chicago has been one of the most vulnerable defenses in the league, particularly against centers.
Poeltl is averaging career highs in minutes, shots, scoring, free throws attempts, and free throw percentage. He's become an offensive anchor for Toronto, as their other scorers have drifted in-and-out of the lineup.
Poeltl has also posted a career-high 19% usage rate, and he's seen a 1.3% bump with Scottie Barnes off the floor. Poeltl has averaged 18.7 points per game in the 12 games Barnes has missed this season.
Chicago is an excellent matchup for interior scorers. They're allowing 57.4 points in the paint per game, the most in the league by a wide margin. New Orleans is 2nd at 53.9, and no other team is above 52.
Chicago is allowing 35.4 field goals attempts per game from inside 5-feet, which would be the most for a full season since 2020-21. Their 23.2 made field goals per game from that range would be the most in this century.
Unsurprisingly, the Bulls are allowing the 2nd-most points per game to centers.
Poeltl scores 80.9% of his points in the paint. He's taking nearly 60% of his shots from inside 5-feet. Poeltl has scored at least 80% of his points from in the paint in every season of his career except his rookie year.
Poeltl is scoring a career-high 12.9 points in the paint per game this season. He's also getting to the line frequently, and shooting better from there. Chicago has also been a decent matchup for free throw shooters, allowing the 14th-most per game.
Pick: Jakob Poeltl Over 16.5 Points
