The Celtics exacted revenge against the Miami Heat in their first-round series, while the Cavaliers escaped a seven-game series against the Magic. I fully expect this series to be a short one, but a shorter series can create some props value from a variance perspective.
There are two key injuries to examine. Kristaps Porziņģis (calf) will likely miss this entire series and Jarrett Allen (ribs) is questionable for Game 1 after missing the final three games of his Round 1 series. We will see if Allen is available in Game 1, but if he is not, Evan Mobley will take on greater responsibility.
For the Celtics, when Porziņģis has not played, Al Horford sees the biggest bump in his usage, climbing from 25.3 to 30.3 minutes per game while averaging 11.6 points, seven rebounds and 3.4 assists per game. Given the size the Cavaliers have, Horford may need to play upwards of 35 minutes per game. His rebounds prop for the series is over/under 7.8 rebounds per game. I like the over and would consider Horford for series rebound leader.
Neither team here has an exceptional distributing lead guard. Both teams are facilitating through a number of different players. On the season, Boston was led by Derrick White — who averaged 5.1 assists on 8.3 potentials — and Cleveland was led by Darius Garland's 6.5 assists per game on 12 potentials. While the playoffs can turn out a bit differently in terms of usage, White is someone the Celtics depend on to help the offense run smoothly. In games without Porziņģis, White led the Celtics with 5.3 assists per game this season.
White struggled against Miami from an assists perspective, but I like him in this matchup. He led Boston in assists per game against the Cavs in the regular season, and I'll grab him to exceed 3.5 assists in Game 1, a line he's exceeded in 2-of-3 games against Cleveland this season. I'll play some on series assist leader (+1500, DraftKings).
For scoring leader, the best scoring threat is Donovan Mitchell (-110); he has an unimpeded opportunity here for the Cavaliers. However, in the regular season, Jayson Tatum (+140) averaged 26.9 PPG compared to Mitchell's 26.6 PPG. I think I'd like to see one of these two jump out to a lead in Game 1 and buy back on the other.
Threes are already a highly variable stat given the lower numbers we are dealing with. I think it's best to take a relative long shot to lead in this category. Max Strus is who I am targeting (+2400, FanDuel).
Strus is a streaky shooter, but when he's hot he gets red hot. In two games against Boston this season, he was 1-of-4 and 5-of-11 from 3. Strus struggled at the start of the series against Orlando, but in the final three games he was 9-of-21 from 3, leading the team over that stretch. In a series in which Cleveland will desperately need offense, Strus is someone who can provide.
Bets:
- 1 Unit – Al Horford Over 7.8 Rebounds per Game (-125)
- 1 Unit – Derrick White Over 3.5 Assists Game 1
- .5 Units – Derrick White Series Assists Leader (+1500, DraftKings)
- 0.25 Units – Max Strus Series 3s Leader (+2400, FanDuel)
