NBA Player Props Forecast: Eyes on OKC, Bam Adebayo and Anthony Davis

The NBA Player Prop Forecast is BACK!

For the returners, welcome back, for the newbies, this will be my weekly opportunity to share insights on the biggest player prop targets, trends, and analysis, even if we do not have lines just yet.

We tackle trade implications, injuries, and rotations to maintain a cutting edge on the player prop market.

This will give you the tools to identify these spots and be ready to jump on these props whenever they open. Although this is not a Fantasy Basketball piece, many of these takeaways should help you identify risers and fallers in your respective leagues.

I am always tweeting about hoops, so be sure to follow me there (@JoeDellera) for updates throughout the week.

Players to Watch

Addition by Subtraction?

Schedule: 10/24 at Nuggets | 10/26 at Bulls | 10/27 vs. Hawks

The Oklahoma City Thunder made a few splashes this offseason and come into the new season as the favorites in the Western Conference. They sent Josh Giddey to the Bulls and returned one of the league's premier wing defenders — Alex Caruso. They also signed Isaiah Hartenstein away from the Knicks, who was a casualty of the cap rules; however, Hartenstein is out with a broken hand for the next few weeks.

The biggest change from a Usage perspective is Giddey's departure. He was tied with Jalen Williams for second on the team in Usage (24.2%) last season and was a generally ball-dominant player that lacked the requisite spacing to optimize the offensive talents of both Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Williams. Some might even refer to his stats as a bit of empty calories on that OKC offense.

When looking at the numbers with and without Giddey on the floor, here are some of the primary takeaways via pbpstats.

Both SGA and Jalen Williams see significant spikes in not only their usage but also their Points/100 Possessions. I do have some slight concerns regarding the sustainability of SGAs because it is so heavily tied to a spike in FTAs, as opposed to Williams, who only sees a modest increase of about 0.5 FTA. Regardless, both of these players should see upticks in scoring to start the season.

Although not the best form given the other variables, we could be projecting as high as 35 PPG for SGA and 23 PPG for Williams. I will be looking for overs on Jalen Williams' points in particular, and I have already bet these two Team Specials on DraftKings for this season:

1. Jalen Williams To Average 23+ PPG, Jalen Williams To Average 4+ AGP (+350 DraftKings)
2. Jalen Williams To Average 20+ PPG, Oklahoma City Thunder To Win The Championship (+1000 DraftKings)

I am very curious to see who gets the biggest swing in the assists department without Giddey. No individual player truly popped off the page and it may just be a team effort as opposed to one player seeing an uptick. I see nothing truly actionable at this point.

Stretch Bigs? Bam Adebayo and Anthony Davis

Schedule: Miami Heat: 10/23 vs. Magic | 10/26 at Hornets | 10/28 vs. Pistons
Los Angeles Lakers: 10/22 vs. Timberwolves | 10/25 vs. Suns | 10/26 vs. Kings

Two players that I am curious to see are Anthony Davis and Bam Adebayo this season. Both teams are looking to improve on the margins and one of those margins is through increasing 3-point shooting.

Bam Adebayo, aka Bamonte, has made some waves during the preseason and with Team USA by increasing his 3-point volume. Last season, Bam averaged just 0.6 3-point attempts per game, the highest mark of his career. He only made a 3 in 12/71 regular season games. During the preseason, Bam was 5/13 from beyond the arc.

Sometimes, players work on things during the preseason that never come to fruition during the regular season (see Ben Simmons 3s). Bam's 3s line is set for 0.5 (-105 BetMGM) with no alts just yet, but I'm curious to see if that will play. Given their projected starting lineup, having the ability to stretch the floor could open things up a bit, given their lack of a true starting point guard.

As for Anthony Davis, he has seen a dip in his 3-point volume since his first year with the Lakers, where he averaged 1.2/3.5 (33.0%) and has consistently declined in volume to 0.4/1.4 last year (27.1%).

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In the pre-season, he had some differing results from long-range, going 4/9, 0/1, 0/4, and 1/3 from beyond the arc. New Lakers coach JJ Redick has talked extensively about increasing margins and edges to build a mathematical advantage. The Lakers already have the Free Throw edge, but if they can trade their long 2s for 3s, the offensive ceiling raises.

The Lakers open the season against the Minnesota Timberwolves and Rudy Gobert, a player who plays the majority of his defense in a drop. Since Gobert joined the Wolves, AD has torched him, going for 38, 38, 31, and 33 points, with one game ending at just 4 in 12 minutes due to injury.

The difference between AD and Bam is that AD is a primary option on the offensive side of the Lakers' attack, while Bam is, at best, a fourth option right now.

For Bam, it makes more sense to target the specific improvement from 3 because I cannot trust the volume, but this is not the case for AD. I am not interested in betting on AD's 3-point volume seeing an uptick specifically; however, I am interested in seeing his ceiling being raised due to an increase in higher-value shots.

I am grabbing AD over 24.5 points (-115 DraftKings) in the opener against the Wolves.