Even though it's football season, I'm still keeping my finger on the pulse of other sports, as well, including the NBA.
Well, on Friday night, I have two assist bets for key playmakers in the NBA. Check out my NBA player props for Warriors vs. Cavaliers and Rockets vs. Thunder below.
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NBA Player Props: Steph Curry, Fred VanVleet
Steph Curry has seen a huge increase in his assists-per-game average, going from 5.1 last season to 7.0 this year through five games.
What's fueling the increase probably isn't sustainable, though.
Curry's pass rate has increased from 1.3 passes per minute to 1.36 this season, which should lead to more assists than last season, sure. He's also seen a big boost in 25% of his passes turning into potential assists, which is up from 20%.
However, Curry's teammates have shot 74.5% on his potential assists so far this year compared to 60% last season. Buddy Hield (82%), Gary Payton II (78%) and Trayce Jackson-Davis (67%) will likely cool off a bit on potential Curry assists moving forward.
This is also a tougher matchup to rack up assists for Curry. The Cavaliers have allowed the fourth-fewest assists per 48 minutes in the NBA this season.
I'm projecting Curry for closer to 5.1 assists tonight with around a 60% chance to stay under 5.5.
Fred VanVleet is averaging just 6.1 assists per game through eight games after averaging 8.1 a game last season. His pass rate per minute has actually gone up to 1.73 from 1.65 last season, but his potential assist rate has gone down.
That's because his teammates are shooting just 49.4% on his potential assists compared to 58.1% last season. Jalen Green (37%), Jabari Smith Jr. (35%), Dillon Brooks (27%) and Amen Thompson (33%) have been ice cold shooting on passes from VanVleet.
I’m expecting VanVleet's Rockets mates to not only shoot more on his passes going forward (an increase in potential assist rate), but also to start hitting more shots on those potential assists.
Tonight, I'm projecting VanVleet for closer to 6.3 with around a 60% chance to clear 5.5.
