The Thunder and Kings are Western Conference playoff teams currently on road trips out East. The Thunder have dropped two of the first three games on their trip. Now, they head to Indiana for a track meet without two of their top guns, which may open up more assist opportunities for TJ McConnell.
The Kings lost the first game of their trip to the Knicks last night, and tonight they will be in Boston for the second game of a back-to-back. They will look for a bit of secondary scoring from Keon Ellis in that one.
Meanwhile in Milwaukee, the Bucks are double-digit favorites over the Raptors, but that has not been a good thing for them this week. The good news is they are expected to get Damian Lillard back tonight. However, he likely won't be able to slow down Immanuel Quickley.
Read below for my top three NBA player props for Friday, April 5.
NBA Player Props for Friday, April 5
Pacers point guard Tyrese Haliburton leads the league with 11 assists per game. However, his backup T.J. McConnell also averages 5.3 assists per game off the bench. Now, he was able to boost that average when Haliburton was out of the lineup. However, with Haliburton starting, McConnell has had five assists in six of his last 10 games and had in two others.
Haliburton and McConnell account for over half of the 30.6 assists that the Pacers average per game, which leads the NBA. Tonight, they get a Thunder team that ranks 18th in assists allowed at 27 per game. In the last two games, Oklahoma City has allowed five assists to Cameron Payne, eight to Payton Pritchard, and six to Derrick White.
What makes me love this play even more is the pace that both of these teams play at.
The Pacers are second in the league in pace while Oklahoma City is seventh. That means McConnell should be able to get a few assists opportunities before Oklahoma City can set its defense.
McConnell is averaging 9.4 potential assists per game over his last 10 games, hitting the over in six of his last seven games with 10 potential assists or more. He is also averaging six assists in his last three games against the Thunder.
On FanDuel, he is listed at +145 for six assists and +500 for eight assists. He just had eight assists on Monday against Brooklyn.
Pick: TJ McConnell Over 4.5 Assists (-130)
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The Sacramento Kings are trying to secure the sixth seed and avoid dealing with the Play-In Tournament. They are fighting an uphill battle in that quest with Kevin Huerter out for the season and Malik Monk out for four to six weeks.
Without them, they are missing over 26 points per game. All of that production will not be made up by De'Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis, who are also the focus of their opponents game plans.
One player who has stepped up in the absence of Huerter and Monk is Keon Ellis. The second-year guard is averaging 4.7 points per game for the season, but he has upped that average to 9.8 over his last seven games. He has hit this line in four of those games, scoring in double figures in all of them.
A pair of triples and a free throw gets us over this line tonight and may help him exceed this line further. Ellis is only attempting 6.4 field goal attempts per game over his last seven games, but 4.2 per game have been from distance.
In that span, he is shooting 50% from behind the arc and many of them have been wide open looks set up by Sabonis.
Additionally, Boston allowed 10+ points to Josh Giddey, Aaron Wiggins, and Isaiah Joe in Wednesday's game and Bogdan Bogdanovic scored 20 points in consecutive games against the Celtics last week.
Ellis scored 11 points last night and he is +250 to score 10 points on FanDuel tonight.
Pick: Keon Ellis Over 6.5 Points (-120)
Backing point guards against the Bucks has been very successful this season. Immanuel Quickley's former teammate, Jalen Brunson, has scored 35 points or more against the Bucks three times this season.
Quickley has not faced the Bucks since he was traded to the Raptors, but in his last game against them, he scored 20 points on Christmas Day off the bench.
Quickley is now averaging 33 minutes per game with the Raptors. Over his last 15 games, he is averaging 19.5 points per game, which would clear this line by a basket tonight. He has scored 18 points in nine of his last 15 games and also scored 16 and 17 points in two others.
Meanwhile, in that same span, the Bucks are allowing 27.2 points to point guards over their last 15 games, fifth-most in the league in that stretch.
Whether under Adrian Griffin or Doc Rivers, defending point guards has been an issue for the Bucks this season because they have struggled to contain dribble penetration. Quickley lives up to his last name and is one of the quickest guards in the league. He can get in the lane and attack the Bucks with his floater.
However, he has also made at least two 3-pointers in 12 of his last 15 games, including three in eight of those games.
Of those last 15 games, Quickley has scored 25 points in three of them and 24 in two others. He is +500 to score 25 points on FanDuel tonight.
Pick: Immanuel Quickley Over 17.5 Points (-106)
