Prop bets can be a great way to get action on a game. Bookmakers don’t have to worry about taking a lot of action on them, so there isn’t as great an incentive to post a competitive line.
As a result, props can be some of the most exploitable bets on the board.
These props can become downright unfair when you combine them with the FantasyLabs Player Prop tool.
Wednesday’s best NBA props come from three of today's 11 contests:
- Dallas Mavericks vs. Atlanta Hawks — 7 p.m. ET on ESPN
- Utah Jazz vs. Houston Rockets — 8 p.m. ET
- Los Angeles Lakers vs. Phoenix Suns — 10 p.m. ET
Let’s dive right in.
All odds as of 2:30 p.m. ET.
Mavericks SG Wesley Matthews
The Pick: Over 14.5 points (-115)
The Mavericks will remain shorthanded for today’s contest, with both Harrison Barnes and Devin Harris already ruled out.
Matthews has been one of the primary beneficiaries of their absence, averaging 18.0 points and 33.7 minutes through his first three games. He’s eclipsed 14.5 points in all three contests, despite the fact that he’s shot just 38.6% from the field and 34.5% from 3-point range.
If he sees some positive regression with his jump shot, he could post even better scoring numbers throughout the season.
The Mavs are also in one of the best spots of the day against the Atlanta Hawks, who have played at the fastest pace in the league to begin the season. The Mavs' implied team total of 118.75 ranks third on today’s slate.
Matthews is a volatile shooter, but this number seems too low considering his usage rate to start the season. I’m interested in this prop up to -160.
Hawks C Alex Len
The Pick: Under 8.5 rebounds (-115)
Len pulled down 11 rebounds in his most recent contest, but there’s reason to believe he could be due for regression on today’s slate.
For starters, Dewayne Dedmon will be active for the first time this season, which will likely cut into Len's playing time: Len is currently projected for 26.5 minutes in the FantasyLabs NBA Models, which is significantly less than the 32.5 minutes he played in his last game.
This game vs. the Mavericks also doesn’t figure to be a good one for his rebounding prospects. He’ll be squaring off with DeAndre Jordan, who owned the best rebound rate in the league last season.
Len isn’t a particularly good rebounder, so I like his chances of going under in this game. He’s tallied just four rebounds in each of his first two games, so I’d play this prop up to -145.
Rockets SG Eric Gordon
The Pick: Under 21.5 points (-115)
Gordon will likely enter the starting lineup for the second straight game while star PG Chris Paul finishes up his suspension.
He scored 21 points in his last game vs. the Clippers, but today’s matchup vs. the Jazz should be a tougher test: The Jazz ranked second in the league in defensive efficiency last season, and the Rockets’ implied team total of 109.75 is significantly lower than their season average (116.0).
Betting unders in the NBA is really scary right now, so I wouldn’t play this prop at greater than -130 juice.
Lakers SF/PF Kyle Kuzma
The Pick: Over 20.5 points
The Lakers are going to be shorthanded on today’s slate, with both Rajon Rondo and Brandon Ingram sitting out for the second straight game.
Kuzma was one of the biggest beneficiaries in the Lakers’ last contest, playing 45 minutes and scoring 37 points. He won't see as many minutes today — that previous game went to overtime — but he should still see close to 40 minutes in an elite spot vs. the Phoenix Suns.
They allowed the most points per 100 possessions in the league last season and don’t figure to be much better in 2018.
Kuzma has shown an ability to put the ball in the basketball early in his career, but this is still a lot of points. This bet stops looking like a value at around -140.
