The first of two Eastern Conference Semifinal matchups tips off tonight when the Pacers take on the Knicks at Madison Square Garden. The matchup pits star point guards and old teammates against each other. However, one role player who could have an impact in Game 1 is Ben Sheppard.
The Western Conference Semifinals began on Saturday night and the Timberwolves went into Denver and stole Game 1 from the defending champs. Anthony Edwards set the tone with his scoring in the first quarter, but he had help putting away the game from Naz Reid. Meanwhile, Michael Porter Jr. may need a big scoring night if the Nuggets hope to even up this series.
Read below for my top three NBA player props for Monday, May 6.
NBA Player Props: Monday, May 6
In the regular season, Ben Sheppard averaged 4.4 points per game in 14.3 minutes per game. While he was drafted for his shooting prowess, the rookie shot just 39% from the field and 31% from behind the arc. However, in his final season at Belmont, he shot 47% from the field and connected on 41% of his 3-point attempts.
In the first round series against Milwaukee, Sheppard shot 50% both from the field and from three. He made at least one 3-pointer in all six games in the series. If Sheppard connects again tonight, he would already be 75% of the way towards hitting this number. He may do so a free throw or layup, but he made two 3s in three of the six games against Milwaukee. That helped him average 5.8 points per game in the series.
In this series, he will face a tougher defense in the Knicks. However, Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam will be the focus of the Knicks defense, particularly Siakam, who will have old teammate OG Anunoby defending him. If Sheppard shares the floor with either of them, he may get an uncontested look or two.
Additionally, the Knicks gave up 18 3s to Kelly Oubre Jr. and Nicholas Batum in their first round series while Buddy Hield exploded for six 3s in Game 6. Sheppard can hit this line whether he makes two 3s or two layups tonight.
In the first round series against the Suns, Naz Reid played just 18.5 minutes per game. The Suns are a smaller team than both the Timberwolves and the Nuggets, so Minnesota did not need their three bigs on the floor as often. Nickeil Alexander-Walker became the sixth man and played 31 minutes per game.
Reid averaged 9.5 points per game against Phoenix, which is where this line is probably coming from. However, it's off considering that Reid averaged 24 minutes per game in the regular season and played 23 minutes in Game 1 on Saturday. As a result, Reid's scoring more reflected his regular season numbers when he averaged 13.5 points per game.
In Game 1, Reid scored 16 points, 14 of which came in the fourth quarter, when Minnesota outscored Denver 33-28 to close the game. Reid is now averaging 12.4 points in his last seven games against the Nuggets, hitting this line in five of them. Reid needed a big fourth quarter to clear this line on Saturday, but he may get off to a faster start if Karl Anthony-Towns is in foul trouble again.
Towns has committed at least four fouls in all five postseason games this year and he is averaging 4.2 fouls over his last 16 postseason games over the last three years. In Game 1, Minnesota began with Towns defending Nikola Jokic with Rudy Gobert providing weakside help. The strategy was successful with them getting the win, but it also led to Towns picking five fouls, which enters Reid
Reid should play at least 20 minutes tonight and if so, he should score 10 points. If he plays closer to 25 minutes or more, I also like him to score 15 as well, which you can take at +360 on DraftKings. He has scored 15 points in three of his last seven games against Denver.
Michael Porter Jr. is the third option on the Denver Nuggets, but he has been second in terms of consistency this postseason. This postseason, Porter Jr. is averaging 22.3 points per game. He is shooting 53.9% from the field and 50% from three on eight attempts per game. The Nuggets advanced in the first round because of two game-winning baskets by Jamal Murray. He is averaging 22.5 points per game this postseason, but he is shooting 40% from the field and also dealing with a calf strain.
As a result, Porter Jr. has been needed to step up even more as he is averaging six more points per game than he did in the regular season and nine more points from last postseason. Porter Jr. has surpassed this projection in all six games this postseason. That includes game 1 when he scored 20 points on Saturday night.
Porter Jr. knocked four 3s in that game. He has made at least two in all six playoff games, as well as three triples in five of the six games. Porter Jr.'s jumper may help him get close to this projection and he should have ample opportunity. He is averaging 39.5 minutes per game in the playoffs and he has played 40 minutes in each of the last three games.
If Porter Jr. plays 40 minutes and takes 15 field goals as he has been doing, I like his chances of surpassing this projection.
