Yesterday, NBA fans were treated to two thrilling Game 4s in the Celtics-Sixers and Nuggets-Suns series. They made up for Saturday, which had a pair of blowouts. The Heat defeated the Knicks 105-86 while the Lakers defeated the Warriors 127-97. They each went up 2-1 in their respective series.
Generally, blowouts are not great for props betting. That is unless you are betting the under. One player who went under on Saturday was Julius Randle as he scored 10 points in the Knicks loss. Randle will need to bounce back to help his team avoid a 3-1 hole, however Bam Adebayo may have other ideas.
Meanwhile in Los Angeles, Anthony Davis was a force with 25 points and 13 rebounds in Game 3. However, he has yet to sustain two consecutive dominant offensive games this postseason. Will he reverse that trend in Game 4? Let's jump into the two NBA player props today.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Julius Randle Under 23.5 Points (-115)
| Spread | Heat -4.5 |
| Time | TV | 7:30 p.m. ET | TNT |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
Julius Randle missed the series opener and had a big performance in Game 2 with 25 points, 12 rebounds, and eight assists. It was clear early on that would not be the case in Game 3. Randle scored just six points in the first half and finished with 10 points on 4-for-15 shooting from the field and 0-for-5 from beyond the arc. Randle's struggles in the postseason have been well-documented. He averaged just 14.4 points per game in the first round series against Cleveland. However, I believe this round has more to do with his matchup against the Heat.
In six games against Miami this season, Randle is averaging just 19.8 points per game. We hit on Randle's points under in a regular season game against Miami and Bam Adebayo was a big reason why. The Heat center is a three-time All-Defensive Team selection and may be adding to his resume this week. Adebayo did not defend Randle much in Game 2 and as a result, Randle was comfortable. Adebayo shouldered much of the blame for that loss and he took the assignment in Game 3 and shut Randle down.
Randle was dismissive of Adebayo's defense and he does have a 43-point game against Miami this season. However, the numbers do not lie. Randle has now gone under this line in four of six games against the Heat this season. That includes games with 15 points, three points (left with injury), and 10 points on Saturday.
Randle has also gone under this line six of seven games this postseason. I expect Randle to have some volume with his team down 2-1 in the series, however he is shooting just 34.6% in the postseason and 22.9% on 3s. As long as Randle is primarily defended by Adebayo, I do not see him getting the 24 or 25 points he will need to go over this line.
Anthony Davis Under 25.5 Points (-125)
| Spread | Lakers -3.5 |
| Time | TV | 10 p.m. ET | TNT |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
As good as Adebayo has been defensively, Anthony Davis has arguably been the most impactful big man on that end of the floor in the postseason. He has three blocks in each of the first three games in this series and four blocks in two of them. However, that consistency has not carried over to the offensive end for him. Since Game 1 of the Lakers opening round series against Memphis, Anthony Davis has scored 20 points five times. He followed those game by scoring in the teens, averaging 13 points per game in the four following games.
If that trend continues, Davis is due for another subpar offensive game. However, it goes deeper than Davis just struggling every other game. In those four games, Davis is averaging 11.8 field goal attempts per game and shooting just 40.4% from the field. He has been visibly less aggressive and that is reflected in his free throw numbers as well. He has gotten to the foul line just 15 times in those four games, compared to 41 in the other six games he has played this postseason.
The Warriors are undersized, so on paper, they are a good matchup for Davis, as he proved in games one and three. However, without Steven Adams and Brandon Clarke, Memphis was undersized too. Despite that, Davis has managed to go under this line in six of nine playoff games and seven game of 10 if you include the play-in game. If Davis comes out and is not aggressive in the first half once again, this might be a sweat-free winner.
