The collective sports and betting world will have its eyes on the CFP National Championpship Game, but the NBA is not taking a night off. There is a six-game slate in the Association offering plenty of opportunities to find value.
Nikola Vucevic has been on a rebounding binge of late. He will look to continue that in Boston where the Bulls will face the Celtics.
In Denver, there will be a clash of former MVPs when LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers take on Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets. However, there is value on another Nuggets big man. Meanwhile, De'Aaron Fox and the Sacramento Kings look to light the beam when they host the Orlando Magic.
Read on for my favorite NBA player props and picks tonight, and let's cash to begin the week!
NBA Player Props & Picks
Nikola Vucevic Over 10.5 Rebounds (-130)
| Chicago Bulls vs. Boston Celtics | Celtics -8.5 |
| Time | TV | 7:30 p.m. ET | NBATV |
| Best Line | BetMGM |
Last week, I took Vucevic to go over 10.5 rebounds, and he cleared it with 13 on the night. The Bulls center has not stopped rebounding since, going over 10.5 rebounds in the following two games. He has gone over in six of his last seven games and is averaging 13.9 rebounds per game in that span, including 18 last Friday against the Sixers and 16 Saturday against the Jazz. According to NBA stats, he is averaging 22.1 rebound chances per game.
Vucevic has benefitted from a few favorable matchups, facing the Sixers without Embiid and the Jazz, who rank 19th in rebounds allowed. However, he also went over against the Bucks and on a back-to-back set against the Cavaliers. Tonight, he gets another favorable matchup against the Boston Celtics.
The Celtics are 22nd in rebounds allowed per game and 27th in defensive rebounds. According to props.cash, the Celtics are also 26th in defending centers. Vucevic is averaging 16 rebounds in three meetings against the Celtics this season. He has gone over in each meeting, including a 23-rebound effort against the Celtics on October 24th.
This matchup will be the first one with Robert Williams back for the Celtics, but they have allowed 11 rebounds to a center in four of their last five games.
At the rate Vucevic has been rebounding, he is a candidate for a value play. FanDuel offers 14 rebounds at +280 and 16 at +600.
Aaron Gordon Over 9.5 Rebounds + Assists (-113)
| Los Angeles Lakers vs. Denver Nuggets | Nuggets -10 |
| Time | TV | 9:10 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass |
| Best Line | FanDuel |
When you think about a player on the Nuggets, particularly a frontcourt player, rebounding and dishing out assists, naturally Nikola Jokic is the first player who comes to mind. However, Nuggets power forward Aaron Gordon has been performing at a high level as well. He is averaging seven rebounds and 2.4 assists per game, for a combined 9.4 rebounds + assists.
Tonight, Gordon gets the Los Angeles Lakers after he was held to three rebounds and one assist in the last matchup. However, the Lakers shot 52.7% and scored 126 points. There are not many rebound opportunities in a game like that.
Since then, Gordon has recorded 10 rebounds + assists in seven of his last nine games. In that span, he has averaged 8.8 rebounds and 2.9 assists. Gordon is capable of going over this line with just rebounds. He has four double-digit rebounding games in his last nine, including games of 13 and 16 boards. He also has games of six and seven assists in that span.
The Lakers also offer a great matchup. They rank 26th in rebounds allowed and 25th in assists allowed, according to props.cash. The Lakers are also second in Pace, offering more rebound and assists opportunities in a game with more possessions. As a result, Gordon should be more effective against the Lakers this time around.
Pick: Aaron Gordon Over 9.5 Rebounds + Assists |
De'Aaron Fox Over 25.5 Points (-115)
| Orlando Magic at Sacramento Kings | Kings -6 |
| Time | TV | 10:10 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass |
| Best Line | FanDuel |
I have had success betting on De'Aaron Fox this season and also had success targeting point guards against the Orlando Magic. So naturally it makes a lot of sense to go back to Fox when he is facing the Magic. Fox scored 37 points in the first meeting in Orlando, and he faces them again in the middle of a hot stretch.
Over his last 10 games, Fox is averaging 28.1 points per game. He has scored 26 points in six of his last 10 games, including four 30-point games. In the games he went under this line during that span, he scored 22, 24, and 25 points, showing his consistency. FanDuel offers 25 points at -130 if you want to avoid being hooked.
When Fox gets it going, he is at his best getting to the basket and operating in the midrange area. Orlando is 28th in 2-point percentage defense while also allowing 13 3-pointers per game, 25th in the league. Fox doesn't rely on the 3 as much, but he is averaging 1.6 3s per game and shooting 33.5%.
Fox should have plenty of opportunities to put up a big scoring night. He is averaging 33.2 minutes per game this season, and that has gone up to 35.3 minutes per game in his last 10 games. He has taken 20 or more shots in six of those games and shooting 53.1% from the field in that span (and 50.5% for the season). With that kind of volume and efficiency, it would not be a surprise if Fox had another 30-point game.
Pick: De'Aaron Fox Over 25.5 Points |
