The NBA slate for Thursday, May 2 has two games and two teams on the brink of elimination.
We have Game 6 in Philadelphia with the 76ers down 2-3 to the New York Knicks. The Pacers lead the Milwaukee Bucks 3-2 and will try and close out an injured opponent at home in Indiana.
As we get deeper into series, game spread and total lines become really sharp. There is no rest or travel advantages to play into, and we have consensus numbers across the board. The matchup becomes about tactical adjustments and ability to exploit another teams weakness.
For that reason, I prefer to attack the prop board later in series formats. So, without further ado, let's dive into my top three NBA player props for tonight, featuring picks for Pascal Siakam, Tyrese Haliburton, and Jalen Brunson.
NBA Player Props: Thursday, May 2
Back to the well for me on Siakam props.
Siakam had two dominant games to start the series in Milwaukee and has tailed off a bit since. The Pacers severely lacked a sense of urgency in a potential close out Game 5, and I expect they try and operate in their strengths very early in this contest.
Feeding Siakam and getting him good looks is essential to ending this series on Thursday night. His recent performances of 12 and 13 points are complete outliers considering his minutes and usage rate.
Expect the spike, and buy in on the dip.
If there is one thing I have learned from watching Tyrese Haliburton's young career, he wants the spotlight, he wants to come through in big spots. He spoke about going hard on his first debut on TNT earlier this year. He spoke about putting extra emphasis on the In-Season Tournament.
During the NBA All-Star Weekend, he deliberately went for MVP.
Now at home in a potential round 1 close out game, with the eyes throughout the league watching and waiting for these series to wind down, I think Haliburton will be aggressive in his play to get the job done.
He's had some passive games, and others where he is actively looking for his 3-point shot. I expect the latter here.
I looked into 3s over, its juiced for over 2.5. I looked into four made 3s, its only +180. I think Haliburton can get the job done with four made 3s, which should be enough to lead both teams in 3-pointers made at a +320 payout instead of only +180.
The game total in Philly Game 6 is dropping fast. It opened at 203.5 and has taken so much sharp action it is now below 200. I am looking for correlated angles to play into a number that hasn't dropped but is related to a dip in the game total.
Brunson has been looking to score in this series, and role players shoot worse on the road. Without Bogdonovic, Brunson loses one more catch-and-shoot player.
I expect Hart and McBride to be less efficient at Wells Fargo Center, so give me the under on Brunson's assists line as a way to fade his teammates ability to score.
