We're in the endgame now. The Warriors have the Grizzlies on the ropes, ready to put Memphis away, and the Celtics and Bucks series has become a best of three with everything on the line.
Most of the potential adjustments have been made by these teams now, so this is a great spot to dig in and spot some prop angles now that we have a pretty good idea what to expect in each series.
We'll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Below, I have laid out three prop bets that I'm playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Brook Lopez, Over 17.5 Points + Rebounds (-122)
| Bucks vs. Celtics | Celtics -5.5 |
| Time | TV | 7 p.m. ET | TNT |
| Best Book | FanDuel |
This Bucks-Celtics series has turned itself into a rock fight. Both of these defenses have been absolutely dominant, and that means points are at a premium, and every bucket is hard to come by.
Giannis Antetokounmpo is playing the part of Thanos for Milwaukee. It really feels like he can just snap his fingers and get to the rim at any time. Antetokounmpo is a destroyer of worlds and controller of the paint — but he isn't doing that alone. Brook Lopez has been the other mountain man next to Antetokounmpo this series, and he's really shown up at both ends.
On one end, Lopez has been an awesome tag-team rim protector with Antetokounmpo, and he's attacking the glass and racking up rebounds at 8.3 per game. Turns out there are plenty of boards to go around when both teams miss many shots. But lately Lopez is making his presence felt on offense too.
When things bog down for Milwaukee as they so often have, the Bucks are starting to go old school and dump the ball into the post and let their talented center do his thing. Boston switches so much that Lopez often has a mismatch, and he still has the nifty footwork and size to take advantage of those mismatches in the post. He's also been an easy target for lobs and is always a threat for a put-back on the offensive glass.
Lopez had a double-double with 13 points and 10 rebounds in Game 3. He had 17 and 7 in Game 4. That puts him at 23 and 24 PR these last two games, far above this number. Honestly, I expected this line to go up after last game, but since it hasn't budged even as Lopez's role has increased, we definitely need to keep playing.
You can also play another double-double at +1450 at Bet365. It will be tough to get the rebounds, but Lopez does have 10 twice already this series, so that number is quite mispriced, even though this is still unlikely.
I would've played this points plus rebounds over at 19.5, so we have to love it at just 17.5.
Andrew Wiggins, Over 5.5 Rebounds (-138), Over 7.5 Rebounds (+200)
| Warriors vs. Grizzlies | Grizzlies +4 |
| Time | TV | 9:30 p.m. ET | TNT |
| Best Book | FanDuel |
Very quietly, Andrew Wiggins has been somewhat of an unsung hero for the Warriors this series.
Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, and Jordan Poole get to have all the fun splashing 3s all over the court, and Draymond Green is the heart of this team and the fiery presence on both ends. But don't forget that Wiggins was an All-Star himself this season, and he's really stepped up and done all the little things this team has needed from him.
Wiggins has scored 17, 16, 17, and 17, becoming a model of consistency. His points come from open 3s at times but also from attacking smaller players in mismatches and taking advantage of what's available with his size.
His size and athleticism have also popped in another important area this series: on the glass. Memphis was one of the league's best rebounding teams in the regular season, and some feared that could be a big advantage in the series. Instead, Golden State has outrebounded Memphis in all four games, and the Warriors have especially hurt the Grizz on the offensive glass.
Wiggins has been a huge part of that. He's averaging 7.5 RPG for the series and has racked up 14 offensive rebounds already in these four games. He has three games with at least eight boards and one outlier with only three — the one where he played way fewer minutes and, frankly, when there weren't any rebounds to grab because Golden State hit every shot.
This line hasn't moved up like it should, so you have to love the over 5.5 rebounds. Wiggins should push eight or more again, and that's why it's worth playing a bit of the higher alternate line too at 2-to-1 value. You might even sprinkle the double-double. The points should be there, and he had a double-double last game. That's priced at +1075 at Bet365 and is worth a dabble at that price.
Wiggins may not be sexy, but he is quietly getting the job done. Expect him to take care of business on the glass once again.
Desmond Bane, Under 17.5 Points (-112)
| Warriors vs. Grizzlies | Grizzlies +4 |
| Time | TV | 9:30 p.m. ET | TNT |
| Best Book | FanDuel |
Look, it brings me no joy to fade Desmond Bane, but we can only play the lines in front of us, and this line is just not pricing in Bane's debilitating back injury.
Bane was positively fantastic in the first round against Minnesota. He averaged 23.5 PPG and was absolutely lethal from behind the arc, tallying 4.5 made 3s per game on a ridiculous 49% shooting for the series. The Grizzlies would not be here without Bane's first-round heroics. You might even say he carried the team on his back, but it appears to have taken everything out of him.
Bane just hasn't been the same against Golden State. He's hit only eight 3s all series after doing that in one game in round one, and he's scored in single digits in three of the four games. Bane has just 38 points total all series, a meager 9.5 PPG. He's gone under this line in all four games, three times by about half of it.
It's not like he's gone ice cold. Bane is still shooting 40% on the 3s he does get up. The problem is the volume just isn't there. It's partly that Golden State is giving him top attention and not letting him get open looks (Curry has been great chasing him around) and part that Bane just doesn't look comfortable and can't move as well off the ball.
Bane's 3-point volume is nearly halved from last series, and he's been mostly reduced to a spot-up shooter. He's just 5-of-15 on 2s after making 21 2s last series too. The volume just isn't there, and even with Ja Morant out last game, Bane isn't mobile enough to step up his game right now and make up for Morant's absence.
We don't have to like it, but we do have to play it. If you play at a book with alternate unders, you may want to consider that too since he's been in single digits three of four games.
