Game 3 of the Boston Celtics and Miami Heat series was the only game that finished with a single-digit victory, even though it didn't feel all that close for most of the game. These two teams have yo-yo'd this series thus far, so it would make sense for the Celtics to take care of business in Game 4 tonight.
There are two juiced props are popping like crazy in our model. They're impossible to ignore, so let's take them and have a great Monday.
We'll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Below, I have laid out two prop bets that I'm playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Jimmy Butler, Over 4.5 Assists (+105)
| Celtics vs. Heat | Celtics -6.5 |
| Time | TV | 8:30 p.m. ET | ABC |
| Best Book | DraftKings |
Jimmy Butler had to leave Game 3 with knee soreness, so he only played 20 minutes as Miami still pulled off the road upset to take a series lead. The Heat have a chance to take full control of this series tonight.
All signs point at Butler playing in Game 4, but taking his over on any prop still has a little bit of concern. The Celtics could also whoop the Heat like they did in Game 2 winning by 25 points. However, Butler has been incredible throughout the playoffs when the Heat have needed him the most.
Not only is Butler questionable tonight, but so is Tyler Herro, Kyle Lowry, PJ Tucker, Gabe Vincent and Max Strus. Make sure to monitor the news for who is actually in the lineup for the Heat. I expect all of those players to be active, but you never know. It is hard to dive too deep into this series because Butler played half the last game.
Our model has Butler projected for 6.3 assists, which presents great value for this slightly juiced prop. He has had five or more assists in three of his last six games. During the playoffs Butler is averaging 10 potential assists per game, which is a close second to Lowry. Take the juice on this seemingly low line.
Jayson Tatum, Over 6.5 Rebounds (+120)
| Celtics vs. Heat | Celtics -6.5 |
| Time | TV | 8:30 p.m. ET | ABC |
| Best Book | DraftKings |
Jayson Tatum was injured and downright abysmal in Game 3, during which he had nearly as many turnovers as he did points. Boston is a 6.5-point favorite to bounce back and even the series tonight.
Open the Action Prop tool up and the first player and prop you see is Tatum, whose over 6.5 rebounds is juiced at +120. He's projected to grab 8.5 rebounds tonight. This is the best prop line and value we have on the board.
Tatum has struggled to get seven or more rebounds lately, having done so in just three of his last seven games. If Robert Williams is out again, though, that will only boost the potential for Tatum. Also, if he's struggling from the floor again, one way he can contribute is on the glass.
The Heat rank fifth in rebounding percentage this playoffs, and Tatum is averaging 9.9 rebound chances per game. During the regular season, that number was 11.9 per game. He has shown potential to have huge rebound games, having grabbed 13 in the last Game 4 he played in against the Bucks.
