Saturday features another medium-sized NBA slate with eight games on the schedule.
This article offers three props to target based on our ActionLabs betting tool. These are three of the best props that stood out prioritizing the Best Line feature. Two guard props and one center prop, let's dive in.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Mason Plumlee Under 9.5 Rebounds (+104)
| Spread | Nets -7 |
| Time | TV | 7 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass |
| Best Line | FanDuel |
Despite the Hornets getting healthier, they are still struggling to find the win column. A struggling Hornets team playing a Nets team that have won 10-straight games is not a recipe for success. The Nets are touchdown road favorites as they have won their last 10 games by an average of 8.8 points per game.
It feels like only a matter of time until the Hornets start rookie Mark Williams over the veteran Mason Plumlee with the way the season is going. Williams' minutes have increased in each of his last three games and he had his first double-double of the season last game with 17 points and 13 rebounds.
With Williams seeing his playing time on the rise, Plumlee's minutes have been decreasing. He has played fewer than 30 minutes in seven of his last eight games. During that time he has failed to reach double-digit rebounds seven times, which is the prop we are targeting tonight. The Nets rank 28th in Rebounding Percentage this season, but there is a lot of risk with Plumlee's rebound prop.
Not only is Williams becoming a stronger option for the Hornets at center, but there is significant blowout risk in this matchup with the Nets. Getting this prop with juice on FanDuel feels like a steal. If this prop drifts down, I would take this number down to 8.5 or even 7.5 if Williams draws his first start.
Pick: Mason Plumlee Under 9.5 Rebounds (+104) |
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Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 5.5 Assists (+100)
| Spread | 76ers -4.5 |
| Time | TV | 8 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass |
| Best Line | PointsBet |
Fading Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is always risky, because he is truly the main reason the the Thunder have 15 wins. He is averaging a career-high 31.4 points per game while shooting over 50% from the field. Despite averaging 5.8 assists per game, our model has him only projected for 4.9 in this matchup.
Playing against the 76ers is always a tough spot, even when at home. The 76ers are still 4.5-point road favorites despite losing back-to-back road games against the Wizards and Pelicans. If the Thunder are going to stay competitive tonight, it will be the scoring of Gilgeous-Alexander, not assists.
The 76ers rank tied for third in Defensive Rating (109.5), entering tonight's games. They are allowing only 108.5 points per game, which ranks second in the league. Even allowing 23.7 assists per game, with Josh Giddey healthy for the Thunder, Gilgeous-Alexander has returned to the main scoring role.
Fade the electric point guard in this tough matchup. The best line for this under assists prop is PointsBet at +100 value. With such a difficult matchup and an implied total of 112 points, it is going to be tough to get exposure to this Thunder offense. I would even take this bet down to 4.5 assists if offered.
Jaden Ivey Over 4.5 Assists (-135)
| Spread | Timberwolves -6 |
| Time | TV | 8 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass |
| Best Line | PointsBet |
The last of our three prop picks features Pistons rookie point guard Jaden Ivey. With Cade Cunningham out for the year due to an injury, Ivey has the role of being one of the Pistons' main facilitators. While still scoring the ball at an efficient level, Ivey has shown signs of having games recording several assists.
Playing against the Timberwolves should provide ample opportunities for Ivey to get over this 4.5 assists prop line. The Timberwolves rank fourth in Pace (102.3), entering tonight's games. They are also allowing 26.1 assists per game, which ranks as the seventh-highest in the league. This is a great spot for Ivey.
The Timberwolves also rank in the middle of the pack in Defensive Rating as they are allowing 115.9 points per game. In his last four games, he is averaging 5.5 assists per game. This game total is currently 233 points, which is the third-highest on the slate. Ivey will have plenty of opportunity to hit this over.
Our model has Ivey projected for 6.3 assists, which is well over the 4.5 prop line. With that being said, I would consider taking this prop at 5.5 if there was juice involved on the over.
The best line currently is on PointsBet, but make sure to shop around if this line moves since the value is sitting at only -135.
