Looking for Sunday's NBA Player Props? Click here for our top plays.
Weekend NBA playoff slates are a ton of fun as we get games starting in the afternoon and spread out through the night. It has Christmas slate vibes, which is exciting.
These three props are each from different games. Let's dive in!
We'll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Below, I have laid out three prop bets that I'm playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Joel Embiid, Over 2.5 Assists (-155)
| Raptors vs. 76ers | 76ers -3 |
| Time | TV | 2 p.m. ET | TNT |
| Best Book | DraftKings |
The Philadelphia 76ers have a chance for a series sweep over the Toronto Raptors which would be a surprise given how the Raptors ended the season. Joel Embiid made a game-winning 3-pointer to lead the 76ers to a victory in their last game, and Philly is a three-point favorite today.
Completing the sweep would be huge for Embiid, who likely needs some rest given the thumb injury in his shooting hand. He has vowed to play in this game, but Embiid may be relying on his teammates more in this close-out game.
Our model has Embiid projected for 4.7 assists, which is well over this 2.5-assists prop. He averaged 4.2 throughout the regular season and the 76ers have very capable scorers outside of Embiid. Another benefit is he is often double-teamed in this matchup against an undersized Raptors frontcourt, which forces him to pass the ball out to open teammates on the perimeter.
I would consider taking this assists prop at 3.5 to get better value, but don't go too crazy with this prop. Embiid had four assists in their first game, zero in their second and two in their most recent game. He is a major mismatch in this series, but with his right thumb injury, he may be looking to pass more today.
Seth Curry, Over 13.5 Points + Assists (-110)
| Nets vs. Celtics | Nets -3 |
| Time | TV | 7:30 p.m. ET | ESPN |
| Best Book | DraftKings |
The Brooklyn Nets lost two very close games against the Boston Celtics on the road. They get a home matchup tonight and are three-point favorites. Everyone knows a series doesn't truly start until the road team wins a game, so expect a bounce-back performance from the Nets in what feels like a must-win game.
This matchup against the Celtics has the second-highest total on the slate at 222.5 points and the Nets are implied for 112.75 points. Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving will gather most of the usage and attention from a Celtics defense that has been the best all season. That is why I am looking at a role player.
Seth Curry had a relatively poor opening game as he only had nine points, but helped the team by posting six assists. In his most recent game, he scored 16 points to go along with two assists, but both games were comfortably over this points and assists prop. Curry could very easily get this over on points alone.
Curry's points prop is 12.5 at even money, which is also intriguing, but I prefer to add his assists in case his shot isn't falling. It is a nice out, especially since he is projected for 18 points and assists in our model.
I think the Nets play well and Curry will have many open looks alongside Durant and Irving.
Desmond Bane, Over 18.5 Points (-118)
| Timberwolves vs. Grizzlies | Grizzlies -3 |
| Time | TV | 10 p.m. ET | ESPN |
| Best Book | FanDuel |
The Memphis Grizzlies recovered from two massive blown leads against the Minnesota Timberwolves and ended the game on a 50-13 run to take the 2-1 series lead going into tonight. The Grizzlies are three-point favorites as they look to put the Timberwolves behind the eight-ball with a victory in this game.
Desmond Bane finally caught fire in the Grizzlies' epic comeback, finishing with 26 points on seven 3-pointers in 40 minutes. His 3.5 made 3-pointers prop is intriguing because he will be looking for his shot after making seven last game. Bane should have no trouble filling up the scoreboard regardless.
This matchup between the Grizzlies and Timberwolves features the highest total on the slate like it has all series long. They lead the playoffs in pace, and the Grizzlies are averaging 115 points per game. They have a slate-high 117.5 implied point total and should have no problem scoring the ball.
Our model has Bane projected to score 22.4 points tonight, which is well above this points prop. I would consider taking this prop up to at least 19.5 points, especially if Dillon Brooks is out. He is currently listed as questionable with foot soreness, so keep an eye on his status ahead of the last game of the night.
