With most teams in the NBA playing at least five games already this season, we are starting to see a few trends that we can take advantage of. There are three player prop lines popping off in our model for tonight's five-game slate.
Continue below for my NBA player props and my NBA picks for Saturday, November 2.
NBA Player Props for Saturday, November 2
- Gradey Dick Over 2.5 Three-Pointers Made (-125, DraftKings)
- Andre Drummond Double-Double (-120, DraftKings)
- Evan Mobley Over 14.5 Points (-105, DraftKings)
It has been a rough start for the Toronto Raptors who are 1-5 to start the season. They have several key players out due to injury including Scottie Barnes, Immanuel Quickley, and Bruce Brown. These injuries have opened the door for second-year pro Gradey Dick who has flourished in his extra minutes recently.
Over the last two games without Barnes, Dick is averaging 30.5 points per game while shooting 55.8% from the field and 41.2% from behind the arc. During that stretch, Dick has a 30% usage rate while attempting 21.5 field goals per night. Known for being a sharpshooter, we are attacking Dick's 3-pointers made in this matchup against the Kings.
Through their first five games the Kings are allowing opponents to attempt 40.8 3-point field goals per game, which is tied for the fifth-highest in the league. Both teams are playing at a top-10 pace this season, which is another benefit for this player prop. The 233.5-point total is the highest on this five-game slate.
In his 31-point outburst last night against the Lakers, Dick poured in five 3-pointers on a season-high 11 3-point field goal attempts. Not afraid to let it fly, Dick has to continue to be aggressive on offense to keep the Raptors competitive in any matchup. Our prop model has Dick projected for 3.9 3-pointers made tonight, which is well over his 2.5 prop line. His ladder projections are 4+ 3-pointers made at +185 and 5+ at +425, which are both very intriguing tonight.
Pick: Gradey Dick Over 2.5 Three-Pointers Made (-125, DraftKings)
Another player who has benefited from injuries is 76ers starting center Andre Drummond. With Joel Embiid and Paul George nursing injuries, Drummond has been dominant in the paint averaging 12.5 rebounds and 9.8 points per game. His 12.5 rebounds per game is currently tied for the second-highest in the league.
The 76ers are one-point home underdogs against the Grizzlies who will play on the road after a four-game home stand. In a closely projected matchup with injuries on both sides, I love this player prop for Drummond. Despite battling foul trouble in most games, Drummond is still averaging 28 minutes per game with an 18.3% usage rate.
Rebounding has not been a problem, but we will need a little more scoring to capture this double-double tonight. Luckily, Drummond will draw an interior matchup against rookie Zach Edey. Despite standing at 7'4" and weighing 305 lbs, Edey has been atrocious defending the paint. The rookie is allowing a defended field goal percentage of 73.1% within six feet of the basket. Expect the veteran Drummond to feast in this matchup.
Our prop model has Drummond projected for 14.8 points and 14.8 rebounds tonight. Capturing a double-double is a great way to attack Drummond's player props. It will not be long until Joel Embiid comes back, but Drummond has been a fantastic replacement in his absence. I love this spot for Drummond against the rookie mountain.
Pick: Andre Drummond Double-Double (-120, DraftKings)
Last, but not least is Cavaliers starting power forward Evan Mobley to capture 15+ points. Mobley has averaged 15+ points per game in every season thus far and in his fourth year is now averaging a career-high 18.3 points per game. Mobley scored 14 points in the Cavaliers victory last night, but this line feels low given his projected output.
Our model has Mobley projected for 19.9 points tonight in a matchup against the Bucks. He did not play in this matchup last year, but two years ago he averaged 18.3 points per game in their four meetings. Displaying his versatility, Mobley can stretch the floor more than his frontcourt teammate Jarrett Allen. That bodes well in this matchup against the Bucks who are notoriously elite at defending the paint.
It is an early start to the season, but after winning their opening game, the Bucks have lost four-straight and are only 1.5-point favorites in this matchup. The Cavaliers on the other hand have a league-best 6-0 record with a point differential of 17 points. In a game that features a 232.5-point total, expect plenty of points scored in this showdown.
Not only is Mobley averaging a career-high in scoring, but he also has posted a career-best 24.9% usage rate, which is the third-highest on the Cavaliers. This line is simply too low and we are getting a -105 value on the over. The Bucks rank 22nd in defensive rating this season and play at the sixth-fastest pace in the league. The ladder bets on this Mobley prop are enticing. He has scored 25 points in two of his six games played this season and his 25+ points prop on DraftKings sportsbook is currently +1500. This is a great spot for Mobley to show his scoring versatility.
Pick: Evan Mobley Over 14.5 Points (-105, DraftKings)
