This Sunday features a smaller six-game NBA slate, and there are two centers that are looking fantastic in our NBA player props model.
Joel Embiid and Mitchell Robinson have the two juiciest props on this small slate as both are in strong matchups tonight.
Here are my top two NBA player props and picks from Sunday's slate.
NBA Player Props & Picks for Sunday, December 11
Joel Embiid, Over 1.5 Blocks (+115)
| Spread | 76ers -10.5 |
| Time | TV | 6 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
After blowing a large lead at home last game but finding a way to win in overtime, the 76ers should be able to dominate this home matchup against the Hornets. They are favored by double digits as the Hornets are implied for 104.75 points. This is a matchup that Joel Embiid should absolutely dominate.
The Hornets have allowed 51.6 points per game in the paint this season, which ranks 23rd in the league. They also rank 21st in Rebounding Percentage, so Embiid should feast against this weak Hornets frontcourt. On the other end of the court, and for the purposes of this blocks NBA player prop, the Hornets are allowing 7.2 blocks per game, which by far leads the league.
Embiid is averaging 1.6 blocks per game, while getting two or more blocks in six of his last nine games. Our model has Embiid projected for 2.2 blocks in this juicy matchup, making this player prop the best value on the slate.
Make sure to shop around for the best odds, which are currently on DraftKings Sportsbook at +115. Expect Embiid to dominate in the paint and get over this seemingly low block prop.
Mitchell Robinson, Over 8.5 Points (+100)
| Spread | Knicks -2.5 |
| Time | TV | 6 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
The Knicks are starting to click, winning three straight games as they have gotten back to a .500 record. They have a great chance to get a winning record as they are 2.5-point home favorites against the Kings. This matchup has a very high total at 231.5 points as the Kings rank sixth in Pace this season.
Another DraftKings Sportsbook juicy prop is Mitchell Robinson over 8.5 points. Our model has him projected for 10.5 points, so getting this at even-money is another fantastic value to pair with Embiid.
Similar to Embiid, this is an awesome matchup for Robinson. The Kings are allowing 52.4 points per game in the paint this season, which ranks 24th in the league. All of Robinson's points come in the paint, so Robinson will have plenty of opportunity to get over this prop line tonight. His usage rate is low, but Robinson can get double-digit points.
Pick: Mitchell Robinson Over 8.5 Points |
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