This Sunday features only two evening NBA games, with the Hawks at Pelicans and Magic at Mavericks. We will have a player prop from each game that has juiced odds.
Continue below for my NBA player props and my NBA picks for Sunday, November 3.
NBA Player Props for Sunday, November 3
- Trae Young Over 3.5 Rebounds (+125, DraftKings)
- Anthony Black Over 3.5 Assists (+110, DraftKings)
Losers of four straight, the Atlanta Hawks are 4.5-point road underdogs against the New Orleans Pelicans. With Trae Young leading the team, Atlanta has the third-highest pace in the league at 104.33. That is a big reason why the total in this game continues to rise and is currently at 230.5 points. Expect an up-tempo game environment tonight.
With Dejounte Murray gone and injuries to two starters Bogdan Bogdanović and De'Andre Hunter, Young has had to step up in multiple ways not just in the scoring department. Young currently leads the league with 11.7 assists per game and is also averaging a career-high 5.2 rebounds per game. He has not shot the ball well at 39.8% from the field, but has still posted three 30-point games and has a 31.3% usage rate.
Young's rebounding is what we are targeting in this spot against the Pelicans. Our prop model has Young projected to capture 4.6 rebounds, which is over a full rebound more than his 3.5 rebound prop. Getting this player prop at +125 on the DraftKings sportsbook is incredible odds given how Young has contributed on the glass.
The 6'1" point guard has gobbled up at least four rebounds in five of his six games to start the season; Young is hitting the over 3.5 rebound prop in 83% of his games. The Pelicans are a middle-of-the-pack rebounding team, ranking 16th in the league with a 49.7% rebounding percentage. Young is second on the team in rebound change percentage at 59.6%. I love this spot for Young to continue contributing on the glass and getting over this prop line.
Pick: Trae Young Over 3.5 Rebounds (+125, DraftKings)
The second point guard we are targeting tonight is Orlando Magic's second-year pro Anthony Black. With Paolo Banchero out for the foreseeable future, Black drew the start last game and contributed seven points, six assists, and two rebounds in 28 minutes. The Magic lost to the undefeated Cavaliers, but there is a good chance Black will draw another start tonight. The Magic are 6.5-point road underdogs against the Dallas Mavericks.
Black is tied with Jalen Suggs for second on the team with 4.5 assists per game behind only the aforementioned Banchero. DraftKings has this line way too low for Black's average and projected output with Banchero out of the lineup. Our prop model has Black projected to dish out 4.4 assists in this matchup tonight.
Even when Black was coming off the bench, he accumulated at least four assists in three of those five games, with the other two capturing three assists. He is a pass-first point guard who is doing whatever he can to contribute to the team. In his last game, Black led the Magic with a 3.0 assist/turnover ratio and had a 31.6% assist percentage.
The Mavericks' backcourt with Luka Dončić and Kyrie Irving is offensive minded. They ranked 18th in defensive rating last season and are on a similar track this season. The Mavericks are allowing 26.8 assists per game so far this season, which is the eighth-highest mark in the league. Projected to start and play 28 minutes tonight, Black will have plenty of opportunity to get four or more assists. This is another prop line that simply feels way too low in this spot.
Pick: Anthony Black Over 3.5 Assists (+110, DraftKings)
