Tonight, Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals will tip off. The Celtics won three of the five regular season meetings and are double digit home favorites tonight. I will be looking to back Jaylen Brown along with Sam Hauser and T.J. McConnell off the bench for today's NBA player props.
Jaylen Brown Over 24.5 Points (-118)
The Pacers and Celtics have not met since January and quite a bit has changed since then. However, when they do get together, the Pacers usually have a hard time stopping Jaylen Brown. In his past eight games against the Pacers, Brown is averaging 27.3 points per game. He has hit this line in six of those games, including four of the five meetings this season.
During a back-to-back set in the regular season, Kristaps Porzingis played just six minutes in the front end and then Jayson Tatum did not play in the second game. In both games, Brown scored 30 points. However, that is still relevant because Porzingis has been ruled for the first two games of this series. Since Porzingis has been out in the playoffs, Brown has scored 25 points in four of the last six games.
Against a Pacers team that wants to get out and run, I like this matchup for Brown as he is a strong finisher in transition. However, I also like his matchup in the halfcourt against either Andrew Nembhard or Aaron Nesmith. Nembhard struggled defensively against Jalen Brunson last round and he will have his hands full with a bigger Jaylen in this series. That may lead to another big scoring night for Brown.
You can back Brown for 30 points +225 on DraftKings and at +650 for 35 points. Brown has scored 30 points in four of the last eight meetings, including a 40-point outing. We can certainly live with getting a 50% hit rate at +200 odds or better.
Pick: Jaylen Brown Over 24.5 Points (-118)
Sam Hauser 6.5 Points + Rebounds (-110)
Speaking of high hit rates, it is hard to top what Sam Hauser has done against the Pacers over the last two seasons. In his last seven games against the Pacers, Hauser has hit his scoring prop in all of them. In that span, he is averaging 11.5 points per game, cracking double figures three times. In that span, he is also averaging 3.8 rebounds, bringing him at 15.3 points and rebounds per game.
As a result, Hauser has hit this combo in each of his seven games against Indiana. Now, one difference here is that Hauser averaged about 20 minutes in those games. He also saw an uptick in minutes and volume in the games Porzingis and Tatum were out. In the playoffs, Hauser is seeing about 15 minutes per game, seeing more consistent minutes against Miami. One thing about the Pacers is that head coach Rick Carlisle gives his bench consistent minutes and their depth has helped them reach the Eastern Conference Finals.
In turn, that could make head coach Joe Mazzulla more comfortable leaving in Hauser for a few extra minutes if he is going against Indiana's bench. With him only needing a combination of seven points and rebounds to clear this line, 15 minutes should be enough playing time for him to do so. He may do most of the work with the long ball.
Hauser is a career 42% 3-point shooter and he has upped that to 44% in the playoffs. Hauser has averaged three triples against Indiana of late, which would put him over him this combo. However, if he knocks down two tonight, he only need to grab one rebound to clear this line.
Pick: Sam Hauser 6.5 Points + Rebounds (-110)
T.J. McConnell Over 9.5 Points (-128)
Compared to the others, T.J. McConnell's success against Boston has been a bit more modest. He still has scored 10 points in the three of the last five meetings. However, that is really not why I am backing him tonight.
In the playoffs, McConnell has played about 20 minutes a night. McConnell has done a good job of facilitating Indiana's offense, but he has been very aggressive looking for his own shot. In those minutes, McConnell is averaging 10 field goal attempts per game, many of which are right at the rim. If he makes five of them, he clears this line and he has done so in six of his past eight games while averaging 12.8 points per game.
Tonight, McConnell will not have to worry about Kristaps Porzingis protecting the rim on his drives. He also may see more of Payton Pritchard than Derrick White or Jrue Holiday whose minutes will likely mirror Tyrese Haliburton's. That should give McConnell a reasonable path to scoring 10 points tonight and it is an added bonus if he knocks down a triple. He has been reluctant to take 3s unless he is wide open, but he has made five through the first two rounds this postseason.
