The Celtics took the first two games of the NBA Finals on their home floor and head to Dallas with a 2-0 lead. They'll look to extend their advantage to 3-0 tonight, and that's also our goal with three props for Game 3.
So, let's dive into today's NBA player props, featuring picks for Jayson Tatum, Jrue Holiday and Dereck Lively II.
Jayson Tatum Over 15.5 Rebounds + Assists (-112)
In Game 1, we backed Tatum for over 9.5 rebounds, and he cashed with 11.
In Game 2, Tatum started slow with just three rebounds at the half and ended with nine, just under his rebounds line. However, Tatum still had a double-double because he also had 12 assists, narrowly missing a triple-double.
Tatum had five assists in Game 1 and has now had at least five assists in nine of his last 10 games. But Game 1 also foreshadowed his big night as a facilitator on Sunday.
In Game 1, Tatum had 14 potential assists. Despite shooting 25% from 3 in Game 2, all but one of Tatum's potential assists were converted. Now, I don't expect 92% of Tatum's potential assists to be converted tonight, but at some point, Boston is going to shoot much better.
Tatum is shooting just 31% from the field, but he's still drawing extra attention, leading to easier baskets for his teammates. If Tatum has six to eight assists converted on about 12 potential chances, that'll put him in great position to cash this combo.
Tatum has had 10 rebounds in 11 of his last 15 games. In that span, he's averaging 10.3 rebounds on 14.8 rebound chances per game. That's helped him record 16 rebounds and assists in 11 of his last 15 games.
Tatum has also cleared this line in five of his last six games against Dallas. He has one triple-double against Dallas, narrowly missing another on Sunday.
Given Tatum's all-around impact, it's worth sprinkling on him to get another tonight. DraftKings has the best odds at +1600.
Pick: Jayson Tatum Over 15.5 Rebounds + Assists (-112)
Jrue Holiday Over 13.5 Points (-113)
Dating back to Game 3 of the East semis, Holiday has scored at least 12 points in nine consecutive games. In that span, he's averaging 17 points per game and cleared this line in seven of them.
Last round, Holiday took advantage of his matchup against Tyrese Haliburton and a porous Pacers defense.
The Mavericks have been playing solid team defense, but Holiday and the Celtics have been trying to exploit Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving at every opportunity. Additionally, the Celtics have had success putting Holiday in the dunker spot.
It led to Holiday's second 20-point game this postseason, as he scored 26 on 11-of-14 from the field. Holiday had five layups that were assisted by Tatum, along with one of the two triples he knocked down.
Along with Derrick White, Holiday was one of just two Celtics to shoot over 40% from deep in Game 3.
Holiday may need his shooting to carry over if the Mavericks prioritize taking his easy baskets.
Holiday nearly doubled this line in Game 2, so if he regresses a bit tonight, he should have the volume to score 14 points. He's taken at least nine field goal attempts in eight of his last nine games, with over 50/40/90 shooting splits.
There also may be a few shots available if Kristaps Porzingis is ruled out.
If Holiday maintains his hot shooting, he may just crack 20 points (+470) again. As a two-leg lotto, Holiday for 20 points with Tatum for eight assists is +1389 on FanDuel.
Pick: Jrue Holiday Over 13.5 Points (-113)
Dereck Lively II Over 6.5 Rebounds (+114)
Lively got a rough introduction to the NBA Finals with two points and five fouls in 18 minutes in Game 1. The foul trouble also limited him to five rebounds.
In Game 2, Lively got an extra minute on the floor and finished with seven rebounds. He's cleared this line in seven of his last 10 games and was hooked on six in another. He's averaging 8.2 rebounds per game during that stretch.
In this series, the majority of Lively's minutes have matched Porzingis' minutes. Porzingis has attempted seven 3s in the first two games and his presence helps Boston space the floor.
However, if he's out, Lively may have the opportunity to hang closer to the basket, including a few minutes against Luke Kornet. That would increase Lively's opportunities, as he has only 17 rebound chances through the first two games of the series.
When Lively has 10 rebound chances or more, he's hit this line at a 65% clip this season, including in five consecutive playoff games.
Head coach Jason Kidd has been asking for more role players to help Doncic and Irving, and Lively's impact will be felt on the glass and at the defensive end.
