At long last, the NBA Finals get underway tonight with Luka Doncic's Mavericks taking on Jayson Tatum and the Celtics.
I'll be looking to back the two stars, along with Derrick White.
Here are my favorite NBA player props today for Game 1.
Luka Doncic Over 31.5 Points (-111)
Despite battling multiple injuries this postseason, Doncic is still averaging 28.8 points per game. He now has gotten a full week of rest.
He enters the NBA Finals after averaging 32.4 points per game against the Timberwolves, who were the NBA's No. 1 defense during the regular season.
The Celtics had the second-best defensive rating in the regular season and they're third in the playoffs. Between Jrue Holiday, Derrick White, Jaylen Brown and Tatum, the Celtics have four quality perimeter defenders among their core players.
However, Doncic has a size advantage on both Holiday and White, and one of them will have to defend Kyrie Irving as well. Placing Brown or Tatum on Doncic will put them at risk for foul trouble while also carrying the burden of being Boston's leading scorers.
Brown was the primary defender on Doncic during the regular season meetings. In those meetings, Doncic averaged 35 points per game, and he also scored 42 points in Boston last season as well.
The NBA Finals are much more intense than a November regular season game, but this is still a matchup that sets up well for Doncic.
According to Second Spectrum Data, Boston ranked 29th in blitz rate this season, opting to rely on its perimeter defenders instead.
While Miami was without Jimmy Butler, we've seen Boston give up big scoring nights to Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, Tyrese Haliburton, Pascal Siakam and even Andrew Nembhard this postseason.
Doncic will likely play north of 38 minutes and take 20 shots or more. I also expect him to hunt Kristaps Porzingis, Al Horford and Payton Pritchard on switches every chance he gets. That'll put him in position to score 32 points tonight.
You can also back him for 35 points at +165 and 40 points at +470 on FanDuel.
Pick: Luka Doncic Over 31.5 Points (-111)
Jayson Tatum Over 9.5 Rebounds (-125)
Tatum also hasn't had much difficulty scoring in this matchup, averaging 34.3 points per game over the last four meetings against the Mavericks.
In that same span, he's also averaging 11.5 rebounds, including 10 in three of those games. He enters this series averaging 10.4 boards per game this postseason. He's hit this line in 11-of-14 postseason matchups, including eight of his last 10.
Dallas ranked 25th in rebounds allowed during the regular season, and that's carried over to the postseason. Guards Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Anthony Edwards both averaged eight rebounds or more against Dallas in the playoffs and had multiple games with 10 or more.
Tatum is the Celtics' best rebounder and with Porzingis back in the lineup, clearing the glass may take on even more of a priority. Porzingis had eight rebounds in just one of the four playoff games he played in before going down with a calf strain.
Meanwhile, Tatum is averaging 15.4 rebound chances over his past 10 games. He's collecting about 66% of them, most of which have come on the defensive end.
That's led to four games consisting of 12 rebounds in his past 10 games.
You can also take Tatum for 12 rebounds at +200 on DraftKings.
Pick: Jayson Tatum Over 9.5 Rebounds (-125)
Derrick White Over 2.5 Made 3s (-132)
The Mavericks remade themselves as a defensive team post-All-Star break. However, they've placed an emphasis on protecting the paint with a willingness to give up 3-point attempts.
Oklahoma City attempted 34 triples per game in the second-round series against Dallas, led by Luguentz Dort, who averaged 2.2 3s.
Minnesota attempted 33.2 3s per night in its series against Dallas as Anthony Edwards, Jaden McDaniels and Naz Reid all averaged over two 3s.
Boston will certainly make Dallas rethink its defensive strategy as the Celtics have no problem attempting north of 40 3s.
Leading the 3-point barrage is often Derrick White. The Celtics guard is averaging 17.8 points per game this postseason and is shooting 40.7% from deep on 8.4 attempts per game. He's cleared this line in 8-of-14 postseason games, including six of his last 10.
The attention that Tatum and Brown draw — along with the Celtics' ball movement — leads to several open looks for White.
He's also no stranger to knocking down big shots as he sent Boston to the Finals with a 3 in Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Finals. White will be in good position to clear this line again if he attempts eight or nine triples.
Additionally, he's made four 3s in six games during this postseason and five in three of them.
White is +210 to make four 3s and +490 to make five 3s on FanDuel tonight.
