On Wednesday, Minnesota dropped Game 1 at home and will be looking to avoid a 0-2 hole before the series shifts to Dallas.
Two players I'll be targeting tonight are Mike Conley and Dereck Lively II.
Let's dive into today's NBA player props.
Mike Conley Under 6.5 Assists (-148)
Mavs vs. Wolves | 8:30 p.m. ET, TNT
In Game 1, we faded Conley's assists and he flew under, finishing with just three on the night.
As expected, Conley saw a decrease in his minutes compared to Game 7 against Denver. He played 31 minutes, and it wouldn't be a surprise if he saw his minutes cut a little more if head coach Chris Finch opts for bigger lineups to defend Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving.
Conley has gone under this line in five of his last six games. He's averaging 5.5 assists in that span and also four assists over his last three games. He also has reached seven assists in just one of his last five games against the Mavericks while averaging 4.4 assists.
Those trends are certainly compelling enough to fade him again.
Additionally, Conley had 11 potential assists in Game 1. Converting 63% of them is still a bit high to cover this line. However, what I really found interesting is that Conley only had three assists in a game in which the Timberwolves made 18 3s and attempted 49 of them.
If the Timberwolves regress with their 3-point shooting, it'll be difficult for him to rack up a ton of assists.
With Anthony Edwards taking on increased playmaking responsibilities (eight assists in Game 1), it'll be difficult for Conley to get to seven assists tonight.
Pick: Mike Conley Under 6.5 Assists (-148)
Dereck Lively II Over 7.5 Rebounds (+114)
Mavs vs. Wolves | 8:30 p.m. ET, TNT
All postseason head coach Jason Kidd has split his center position between Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively II.
It appears that the timeshare is starting to favor Lively of late. Over the last two games, he's played 30 and 27 minutes compared to 19 and 21 minutes for Gafford.
With the abundance of size that Minnesota has, I believe that this series favors Lively, given that he's three inches taller than Gafford. That's particularly the case if he's as impactful as he was on Wednesday.
In Game 1, Lively had nine points, 11 rebounds and two blocks. Lively has now grabbed eight rebounds in four of his last five games. That includes 10 rebounds or more in each of the last three games.
If you want to go safer, his line is 6.5 at -130 at DraftKings. However, I'm going for the plus odds here, considering what he's done of late.
Lively has had 48 rebound chances combined over the last two games. When he's in the game against Rudy Gobert, he'll have to contend with him for rebounds.
However, Gobert is a true center, which means he'll have keep Lively close to the basket and in close proximity to grab rebounds. Lively outrebounded Gobert 11 to seven in Game 1.
If that happens again, Lively won't only pull down eight rebounds, but he may also have a double-double as well. You can back him for a double-double at +600 on DraftKings.
