The Mavericks have an opportunity to advance to the Western Conference Finals on Saturday night if they can notch a win over the Thunder in Game 6. Dallas is a 3.5-point home favorite after winning Game 5 in Oklahoma City on Wednesday night.
In the table below, you can find my top two NBA player props today (Saturday, May 18), featuring prop bets for Chet Holmgren and P.J. Washington. Let's break down how I'm targeting these two players.
NBA Player Props Game 6 (Thunder vs Mavericks)
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 8 p.m. | |
| 8 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Thunder vs. Mavericks Player Props
When reviewing our Player props tool, the two players who stood out the most were Thunder center Chet Holmgren and Mavericks forward PJ Washington. The best part about both is that the props I'm targeting are currently plus-money.
Holmgren to secure nine or more rebounds is +106 on FanDuel. He has only met this feat once in the previous five games of this series, but he has massive rebounding upside against the Mavericks.
During the regular season, the Mavericks ranked 26th in rebounding percentage at 48.5%. They have improved during the postseason, but our prop model has Holmgren projected to haul 10.3 rebounds.
Capturing a double-double in Game 6 may seem like a stretch after not having one all series, but during the regular season, Holmgren averaged a double-double in this matchup with 12 points and 10 rebounds per game. Holmgren is +195 to record a double-double if that is more enticing.
Holmgren has played 40 and 39 minutes in the Thunder's last two games. With their season on the line , expect Holmgren to play as many minutes as he can handle if he can stay out of foul trouble.
The Mavericks allowed 45.1 rebounds per game, which ranked 25th in the league. They also were in the top 10 in field-goal attempts. Holmgren will get plenty of opportunities to grab rebounds and flirt with a double-double.
Pick: Chet Holmgren Over 8.5 Rebounds (+106 | FanDuel)
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After averaging 10.8 points and 5.3 rebounds per game against the Clippers in the first round, Washington is up to 19.4 points and nine rebounds per game in this series. He has shot the ball from the perimeter at a 47.7% clip and played well over his average outcome.
But despite securing a 10-point, 10-rebound double-double in Game 5, he went under this line of 22.5 points and rebounds.
This line is inflated due to how well Washington has shot. The Thunder were the fourth-best team during the regular season with a 111.0 defensive rating.
After a strong showing in Games 2, 3 and 4, the Thunder finally caught on and limited Washington to only nine field-goal attempts in Game 5. Nearly 60% of Washington's attempts in this series have come from behind the arc, so if his shot isn't falling, it could be a long night for him.
Even rebounding the ball, Washington has been inconsistent. He has two games with six rebounds and three games with double-digit boards. We will take that inconsistency to the bank, especially with juice on the under. Our prop model has Washington projected for only 19.4 points and rebounds.
The outcome of this prop will likely come down to how well he is shoots. Since coming to the Mavericks at the trade deadline, Washington has shot a career-low 42.1% from the field and 31.4% from behind the arc.
He has been a sharpshooter this series, but he will come back to Earth. I will gladly take plus-money on Washington's under.
