After a great slate of NBA Playoff games yesterday, we run it back with four more today.
In the table below, you can find my top two NBA player prop picks for today, Sunday, April 21, featuring bets for role players Payton Pritchard and Malik Beasley. Let's break down how I'm targeting these two players.
NBA Player Props Today
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 1 p.m. | |
| 7 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Heat vs. Celtics Player Props
It has been what feels like a month since the Boston Celtics have played a meaningful basketball game. They coasted into the NBA Playoffs with the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference wrapped up a while ago.
The Celtics are heavily favored again today as slate-high 14-point favorites against the Miami Heat, who are playing without Jimmy Butler. If for some reason this game gets out of hand, our prop target Payton Pritchard may look even better tonight.
Pritchard is having his best year as a Boston Celtic. He played all 82 games this season and averaged career highs across the board in points, assists and rebounds per game. His role has expanded recently due to the Celtics locking up the top seed in the Eastern Conference, but he is still projected to play around 18 minutes tonight. That is more than enough time for Pritchard to capture at least three assists, so I will gladly take the juice on his over 2.5 assists.
Our prop model loves this player prop. Pritchard is projected to record 3.5 assists tonight, which is a full assist more than his juiced player prop. Getting that kind of value is difficult to come by. Pritchard will not get the playing time like he did the last two games where he captured double-digit assists with 13 and 11 respectively. However, but he is an elite distributor who has recorded at least three assists in eight straight games and in 14 of his last 16 games.
The Heat have been an average defense preventing assists, despite ranking fifth overall in Defensive Rating. The Celtics led the league in Offensive Rating and were second in the league in scoring with 120.6 points per game. There are several avenues for Pritchard to reach his over assists prop, so take the already baked in juice at +130 in this spot.
Pick: Payton Pritchard Over 2.5 Assists (+130 | BetRivers)
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Pacers vs. Bucks Player Props
It is impossible to open up our NBA player prop model and not see Milwaukee Bucks shooting guard Malik Beasley flooding the most valuable prop bets. The biggest news of this matchup is the status of Giannis Antetokounmpo, who is doubtful and unlikely to play in Game 1. As a result, the Bucks are slight home underdogs against the Indiana Pacers.
With the Pacers leading the league in scoring and ranking second in Pace, expect a track meet that the Bucks will have to keep up in. This game total has a slate-high 231.5 points and a tight spread with the Pacers favored by 1.5 points. However, in their previous five meetings this season, the total has been an average of 254 points.
The Bucks are desperately looking for scoring production now that Antetokounmpo's 30.4 points per game are likely off the table. Expect some of that production to flow down to Beasley.
In his first season with the Bucks, Beasley is averaging 11.3 points per game while shooting 41.3% from beyond the arc. Beasley's 3-point prop was intriguing, but taking him to reach eight or more points feels like the safer bet. Despite the Pacers being an elite 3-point defense, Beasley has averaged 9.4 points per game in this matchup and is shooting 40.7% from long distance. Beasley will likely come off the bench tonight, but that shouldn't matter.
Due to the Pacers' fast Pace, their defense struggles. They rank 24th in Defensive Rating this season while allowing 120.2 points per game. I don't mind taking a sprinkle on Beasley to score 10+ points at +155 or 12+ at +270 at DraftKings. Our prop model has Beasley projected to score 11.8 points in this matchup, which is well over his prop line tonight. Any way to get exposure to Beasley the better because the Bucks will need his shotmaking abilities.
Pick: Malik Beasley Over 7.5 Points (-142)
