Last night, LeBron James and the Lakers capped the night by putting us in the green, but also pulled off a historic comeback in the process. The Clippers entered the fourth quarter with a 21-point lead and were 235-0 in franchise history when leading by 19 or more points entering the fourth quarter. James scored 19 of his 34 points in the fourth quarter as the Lakers outscored the Clippers 39-16 and secured the season series in the process.
One game that may start uncompetitive and finish that way is Bucks vs. Hornets, this time in Charlotte. That could lead to another short night for Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Stephen Curry returns to Madison Square Garden tonight, where he broke the all-time record for 3-pointers. The Warriors will look to stay hot and Curry will look to snap out of a recent slump. However, there may be more value on one of his core teammates.
The Hawks are 2-0 in their first two games without Trae Young and are averaging 116.5 points per game. They will head to Brooklyn tonight in search of their third straight win. Dejounte Murray will look to secure another double-double in the process. So, let's get to our NBA player props tonight.
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On the surface, the Charlotte Hornets are a tremendous matchup for Antetokounmpo. They are 23rd in points allowed in the paint per game. They are also 26th in rebounds allowed overall while ranking 30th in assists allowed to power forwards. However, Antetokounmpo is averaging just 18.3 points, 10 rebounds and 4.3 assists per game against Charlotte this season.
Milwaukee has not needed him to dominate because it has won the first three meetings against the Hornets by 30 points or more, including 123-85 on Tuesday. The final margin may not be as large tonight, but Milwaukee is a 12-point favorite and should win comfortably again. Charlotte is averaging just 89.3 points against Milwaukee this season and it is 29th in offensive rating over the last 15 games. In that span, the Bucks are fourth in defensive rating.
Antetokounmpo is averaging 11.2 rebounds and 6.3 assists per game this season. However, he is only averaging 25.4 minutes per game against the Hornets this season. As a result, he has went under this line in the first three meetings. In the first two matchups, he cut it close with 17 rebounds and assists combined, but he had just nine on Tuesday.
On most nights, Antetokounmpo will have at least 10 rebounds and four assists. However, if he gets there and has 14 rebounds and assists tonight, he will still be well under this line. Barring a triple-double or a closer-than-expected game, I expect him to stay under this line again.
Pick: Giannis Antetokounmpo Under 17.5 Rebounds + Assists (-120 at DraftKings)
The Knicks are 11th in defensive rating this season, but they have slipped of late as they battled injuries. Over the last 10 games, they are 30th in defensive rating. Regardless of who is in the lineup, head coach Tom Thibodeau is willing to give up the 3 in order to protect the rim. The Knicks are allowing about 13 threes per game this season and they rank 19th in 3-point percentage defense.
This sets up very well for Draymond Green. While he will never be confused for his "Splash Brother" teammates, Green is averaging 1.1 3s per game this season. He is only taking 2.5 per game, but he is knocking down 44% of them. He has made at least one three in each of his past eight games and in both meetings against the Knicks last season.
The Knicks are allowing the second-most 3s per game to power forwards and the seventh-most 3s to centers. Recently, they have allowed at least two 3s to Simone Fontecchio, Sam Hauser, Kristaps Porzingis, Myles Turner, Jabari Smith Jr. and Paolo Banchero, who made six.
We don't need Green to have a monster game behind the arc tonight, but I am expecting him to get at least one wide-open look. If he knocks that down, we will have a very easy and possibly quick cash. In several of his recent games, he has made a 3 in the first quarter.
Pick: Draymond Green Over 0.5 3-Pointers (-125 at DraftKings)
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Brooklyn is allowing the seventh-fewest assists per game this season. However, Dejounte Murray has eight and nine assists in two games against the Nets this season. That was with Trae Young in the lineup. In his last 10 games without Young, Murray is averaging 9.1 assists per game
In three of the last five games without Young, Murray has easily cleared this line with 11 assists. That includes the two most recent games against the Magic and Jazz. In those games, Murray has averaged 14.5 potential assists. Nets center Nic Claxton is averaging 2.2 blocks per game and may alter a few shots at the rim. However, the Nets are 25th in 3-point percentage defense.
In the first two meetings against Brooklyn, the Hawks made 30 3s. If Murray gets four to five assists off 3s tonight, we are already halfway towards this line. Even without Young, the Hawks have several capable scorers aside from Murray himself in Bogdan Bogdanovic, Jalen Johnson, Saddiq Bey and DeAndre Hunter, among others.
Additionally, if Murray gets to 10 or 11 assists, he presents value as he is +135 for a double-double on DraftKings. The Nets are also 23rd in rebounds allowed and Murray just had nine on Sunday. If he grabs one more rebound tonight, he will cash a triple-double at +2000.
Pick: Dejounte Murray Over 8.5 Assists (+110 at DraftKings)
