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NBA Player Prop & Pick
| Prop | Klay Thompson Under 4.5 Made 3s (-132) |
| Matchup | Warriors vs. Nuggets |
| Time | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| Best Book | FanDuel |
Sunday’s slate of NBA games closes in the Mile High City, where the top-seeded Denver Nuggets will host the Golden State Warriors. Klay Thompson has been electric from downtown in his recent four-game home stretch, but I will be fading him tonight when he plays away from the Bay.
On the season, Thompson has shown noticeable shooting splits playing at home compared to on the road. He sees a 3.5% dip in his 3-point shooting and drops to 3.7 3-pointers in 30 road games from 4.2 3s per home game.
Thompson has failed to cover his current 3-pointers made prop in 10 of his last 14 road games. If you take a deep dive at the misses, all four came against teams ranking in the top 10 in Opposing 3s Allowed after the All-Star break, including the Thunder twice (fourth-ranked), Rockets (first-ranked), and the Trail Blazers (eighth-ranked).
As for the matchup, the Denver Nuggets allow the fourth-fewest 3-pointers to shooting guards (2.69). Thompson gets a tough matchup against Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, who ranked in the 84th percentile in Defensive Estimated Plus/Minus, according to dunksandthrees.com.
The Nuggets allow a 33.1% defensive field goal percentage at home against 3-pointers, which ranks second-best in the league.
For all the reasons listed above, I find it hard for Thompson to continue his success, and I will confidently fade his 3-pointers made prop tonight.
Pick: Klay Thompson Under 4.5 Made 3s (-132) |
