After splitting the assists prop yesterday, this article will feature three over player props featuring Jaren Jackson Jr., Kristaps Porzingis and Trendon Watford. All three player props look like great value in our NBA Prop Model.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Jaren Jackson Jr., Over 3.5 Blocks and Steals (+120)
| Spread | Grizzlies -2 |
| Time | TV | 6 p.m. ET | NBA TV |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
Many thought the Grizzlies would fall down the Western Conference standings with Ja Morant being suspended and all of their injuries. They've done the exact opposite, with Jaren Jackson Jr. on an absolute tear and the Grizzlies winning eight of their last nine games, hanging in as the Western Conference's No. 2 seed.
Over the last five games, Jackson has really taken off offensively, averaging 28.4 points per game while shooting 58.2% from the field. In that span, he has also been a defensive stud with 2.6 blocks per game.
Jackson continues to lead the league with three blocks per game, while the Hawks are allowing 5.1 per game, which is tied for the seventh most in the league. They also give up 7.5 steals per game, which means 12.6 total blocks and steals per game, which will provide a lot of opportunity for Jackson.
Our model has Jackson projected to capture 4.9 steals and blocks tonight, which is well above this prop line. With heavy juice on the over, Jackson could hit this over on blocks alone. He has gone over this prop line in three of his last five games, while recording four blocks in two of those five contests.
Kristaps Porzingis, Over 28.5 Points and Assists (-110)
| Spread | Raptors -9.5 |
| Time | TV | 6 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
It has been a brutal March to be a Wizards fan. They have lost nine of their last 12 games with their only wins coming against the Pistons and Spurs. They're now three games back from the last seed to make the play-in tournament in the Eastern Conference with only eight games remaining.
To make matters worse, Washington will be playing without Bradley Beal and Kyle Kuzma. With Beal and Kuzma off the floor, Kristaps Porzingis has a 34.4% usage rate, which is why the over on his player prop is popping so much in our model.
Our model projects Porzingis to capture 33.2 points and assists in this spot tonight, which is well over his 28.5 prop line. Getting that much potential usage, Porzingis will be involved in nearly every Wizards possession. Also, in his two games against the Raptors this season, Porzingis is averaging 23.5 points per game while shooting 65.4% from the field.
Assists have been tougher to come by for Porzingis, but he did record five in his last game. He could easily score 30 points like he did three games ago, but having the assists to fall back on is a nice bonus.
I would bet this over at 30.5 points and assists tonight.
Trendon Watford, Over 22.5 Points and Rebounds (-110)
| Spread | Thunder -9 |
| Time | TV | 7 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
The Blazers have already ruled out Damian Lillard, Anfernee Simons, Jusuf Nurkic and Jerami Grant for tonight as they are nine-point underdogs. Lillard might be shut down the rest of the season, as well.
With those players all out, that will open the door for a lot more minutes and production from role players like Trendon Watford. He is projected to start, which bodes well for his outlook. In the six games that Watford has started, he is averaging a near double-double with 12.5 points and 8.8 rebounds per game, while shooting 50.8% from the field and 41.7% from behind the arc.
Watford has a massive ceiling against a smaller Thunder frontcourt that ranks 26th in Rebounding Percentage this season. OKC is also in the middle of the pack in points allowed in the paint with 50.4 per game, making this a pretty good matchup for a big man who's projected to play 33.6 minutes.
Our model has Watford projected for 29.6 points and rebounds tonight, which is a massive value from his player prop. This is a ladder situation, where you can get juiced odds the higher you move the number. I would bet this player prop up to 25.5 points and rebounds as Watford should dominate the Thunder.
