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NBA Player Prop Picks Tonight: Back Pascal Siakam, T.J. McConnell, Karl-Anthony Towns

NBA Player Prop Picks Tonight: Back Pascal Siakam, T.J. McConnell, Karl-Anthony Towns article feature image
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Photo by Justin Tafoya/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Karl-Anthony Towns (Wolves)

The Knicks were able to carve out a 2-0 lead at home, but that proved costly as Mitchell Robinson, Jalen Brunson and OG Anunoby all suffered injuries. Robinson and Anunoby are both out tonight, while Brunson is questionable.

That could lead to a big night for Pascal Siakam and T.J. McConnell.

Meanwhile in Minnesota, the Timberwolves return home with a 2-0 lead. In front of what should be a raucous crowd tonight, I'll be backing Karl-Anthony Towns to make a big impact on the glass.

Here are NBA player props picks tonight.


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Pascal Siakam More Than 20.5 Points

Knicks vs. Pacers | 7 p.m. ET

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Siakam has had a strong track record against the Knicks dating back to his time with the Raptors. Since 2019, Siakam has scored 20 points or more in 10-of-17 regular season games against New York. In four other games, he scored 18 or 19 points.

Despite that, I have had little interest in backing Siakam in the first two games of this series.

Siakam has been the defensive assignment of Anunoby, who's not only of the game's elite defenders but also Siakam's former teammate. Siakam and Anunoby played together for 6.5 years, which means they know each other's every move.

Additionally, Anunoby has held opponents to 40% from the field this season.

Well, Siakam won't have to worry about Anunoby tonight, as he's out with a hamstring injury.

Siakam also nearly hit this line in Game 1 when he scored 19 points. Another basket tonight and he surpasses this projection. I like him to get there considering that he's played 34 minutes in all eight postseason games (37.5 per game).

He's also taken 15 field goal attempts in six of his postseason games.

Additionally, Siakam is averaging 21.7 points per game in Gainbridge Fieldhouse this season.

He should have the volume to get 21 points and surpass this projection tonight.

Pick: Pascal Siakam More Than 20.5 Points

Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images. Pictured: Pascal Siakam (Pacers)

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T.J. McConnell Over 16.5 Points + Assists (-120)

Knicks vs. Pacers | 7 p.m. ET

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When Siakam (and Tyrese Haliburton) go to the bench, the Pacers' offense will be in good hands with McConnell at the helm.

McConnell is averaging 10.6 points in the playoffs, and he's cracked double figures in each of his last three games. That includes 20 points in Game 6 against Milwaukee and 18 points in Game 1 of this series.

McConnell also has three assists in each of his five games. That may seem modest until you realize that he's had eight assists in three of those games. That includes 12 assists in Game 2, numbers that we've come to expect from Haliburton.

McConnell has hit this line in each of his last three games, surpassing 20 points and assists in all three.

While McConnell's strong play has helped him hit his props, the Pacers are also +19 with him on the floor in 45 minutes through the first two games of this series. They're -32 with him on the bench and he didn't play the final seven minutes of Game 2.

Down 0-2, it stands to reason that McConnell will get more minutes tonight, likely in place of Andrew Nembhard.

That'll help McConnell hit this line and may also help the Pacers get back in this series.

Pick: T.J. McConnell Over 16.5 Points + Assists

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Karl-Anthony Towns Over 7.5 Rebounds (-110)

Nuggets vs. Wolves | 9:30 p.m. ET

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In six playoff games, Towns is averaging nine rebounds per game, up from 8.3 in the regular season. He's beaten this line in four of those games, including 12 in Game 2.

Rudy Gobert didn't play in that game, which slid Towns over to center.

Despite his expected return tonight, I still like Towns for this main reason. The oddsmakers have both Gobert's and Nikola Jokic's rebounds line at 12.5. However, Gobert is averaging 10.8 rebounds in his last 12 games against Denver and has had 13 in just five of those games.

Meanwhile, Jokic is averaging 11.6 rebounds in his last 14 games against Minnesota, grabbing 13 just four times. Gobert and Jokic may have double-doubles tonight, but while the two of them battle for rebounds, it frees up rebound chances for others, namely Towns.

Towns is averaging 9.4 rebounds in his last eight games against Denver. He's pulled down eight in six of those games, including five of seven in the playoffs. That gives us over a 70% chance of hitting this line tonight, which will only improve with the more rebound chances that Towns has tonight.

In Game 1, Towns had just five rebound chances and collected four rebounds. However, he's had 12 rebound chances in the other six postseason games against Denver, while averaging 14.6 against it over the last two postseasons.

Should Towns have 14-15 rebound chances tonight, I like his chances of grabbing at least eight of them. You can also back him for a double-double at +230 on DraftKings.

Towns has five double-doubles in his last seven playoff games against Denver, including four with Gobert in the lineup.

Pick: Karl-Anthony Towns Over 7.5 Rebounds

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Ian Firstenberg
Sep 18, 2024 UTC