Sunday features a pair of Game 4s that have all the pressure on the home teams to tie up the series.
I have two NBA player props today, one from each game. We're on Derrick White for Celtics vs. 76ers and Nikola Jokic for Nuggets vs. Suns.
Let's finish the weekend on a high note! Here are our NBA player props.
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NBA Player Props & Picks
Derrick White, Over 2.5 Assists (-145)
| Spread | Celtics -2.5 |
| Time | TV | 3:30 p.m. ET | ESPN |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
The Celtics can really put the pressure on the 76ers if they find a way to win this Game 4 and take a 3-1 series lead. They're 2.5-point road favorites but maybe playing without Marcus Smart, who's questionable due to an ankle injury.
If Smart is ruled out, that would make this White over assists prop look even better than what it is as of 12:30 p.m. ET on Sunday.
In 21 games without Smart during the regular season, White averaged 5.1 assists per game and had a 20.6% usage rate. However, even if Smart plays, White is still in a great spot to reach this over assists prop. In his first full season with the Celtics, White averaged 3.9 assists per game and even with that dipping down to three per game in the playoffs, that is still comfortably over 2.5 assists.
Our model has White projected for 4.4 assists in Game 4 tonight.
The 76ers were sixth in assists per game allowed during the regular season but rank in the middle of the pack among all playoff teams allowing 23.7 per game. Joel Embiid helps their interior presence, but Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown score from anywhere. White will have plenty of opportunities to get three assists, especially if Smart is out.
Nikola Jokic, Over 14.5 Rebounds (-104)
| Spread | Suns -2.5 |
| Time | TV | 8 p.m. ET | TNT |
| Best Line | FanDuel |
Jokic's rebound prop continues to climb, but deservingly so as he is averaging 17.3 rebounds per game in this series against the Suns. He has absolutely dominated the paint, specifically against Deandre Ayton who is visibly frustrated with his role on the offensive end of the court, which is showing with his lack of effort defensively and on the glass.
It wouldn't be surprising if the Suns started Jock Landale who closed for the Suns in Game 3 after Ayton's poor performance. Regardless of who lines up across from Jokic, he will make their life miserable. The Nuggets lost, but Jokic had a monstrous Game 3 with 30 points, 17 rebounds, and 17 assists – his third triple-double of the postseason.
Jokic has hauled down 16+ rebounds in each of his last four playoff games and our model has him projected for 15.7 rebounds tonight, which is considerably above his player prop. Almost getting this prop at even money, I wouldn't be opposed to climbing the ladder and 15.5 and 16.5 rebounds. Jokic's rebounding upside is unmatched in this spot.
Pick: Nikola Jokic Over 14.5 Rebounds (-104) |
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