Night one of the knockout round of the In-Season Tournament was a huge success for the NBA. There were two phenomenal games with the Pacers and Pelicans pulling off upset victories to move on to the semifinals in Las Vegas.
We also enjoyed a great prop betting night, sweeping the slate with picks from Derrick White, Tyrese Haliburton and Brandon Ingram, including a +550 cash on Ingram.
Tonight could be another great one with the Knicks taking on the Bucks and the Suns visiting the Lakers. Both games have totals over 220 points. However, I will be focusing on Jalen Brunson and LeBron James. Let's dive into the NBA player props I'm backing tonight, including two overs to target with your prop bets Tuesday.
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Last Thursday, Jalen Brunson had 42 points against the Pistons. It was his second 40-point game of the season. The first came a few weeks back in the group stages against Milwaukee. Brunson scored 45 points and nearly doubled a line of 23.5 points.
As a result, his line is up three points for this matchup.
Brunson has scored 27 points in just 6-of-19 games this season, but he has scored over 30 points in each of those games. He also has scored at least 24 points in six additional games, so generally he is in the ballpark. That has helped him average 24.9 points per game this season.
However, tonight is about another fade of the Bucks' defense.
Per FantasyPros, the Bucks are allowing the 10th-most points to opposing point guards at 24.6 points per game. In Saturday's game against Atlanta, they allowed 30 points to both Trae Young and Dejounte Murray.
Since the last matchup against the Knicks, the Bucks have allowed at least 27 points to Cade Cunningham, Tyrese Haliburton, LaMelo Ball, Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving and Jordan Poole.
Dating back to last season, Brunson has scored 40 points in each of the last two meetings against the Bucks. While it's unlikely that he scores 40 a third straight time, it cannot be ruled out, given the matchup.
Brunson should score at least 27 points tonight. However, if you want to sprinkle on him climbing the ladder, you can take him for 35 points at +380 on DraftKings and 40 points at +1200 on FanDuel.
Pick: Jalen Brunson Over 26.5 Points (-115 at bet365)
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Before I delve into this matchup, let's acknowledge the spot here for LeBron James. While the In-Season Tournament is just beginning, James' illustrious career is winding down.
However, James still has a chance to leave his mark on history by leading the Lakers to the first In-Season Tournament title in league history. As a result, James has been going all-out in this tournament and you can see it in the Lakers' record.
The Lakers are 4-0 in the In-Season Tournament, but 8-9 in their other 17 games. James is averaging 25 points per game in those four games and scored 30 points in two of them. He scored 32 points against the Suns in the Lakers' first In-Season Tournament game.
By facing the Suns, James will be going against his friend and longtime competitor Kevin Durant. With this game being on national TV, it has all the makings of a game that James gets up for.
James has spent time at both small and power forward this season. The Suns are allowing the fifth-fewest points (19.7) per game to small forwards, but the fifth-most points (26.3) to power forwards.
They will have a hard time defending James tonight. Josh Okogie, Nassir Little, Eric Gordon and Grayson Allen are all between 6-foot-4 and 6-foot-6 and giving up at least 50 pounds to James. The Suns' best matchup for him is Durant, but they will not ask him to defend James all game and score offensively.
Phoenix is also 23rd in points in the paint (53.4) allowed per game, so James should thrive off dribble penetration and meet little resistance at the rim. As a result, Phoenix is also a good matchup for Anthony Davis and he usually plays well against the Suns.
However, I am going with James because I have more confidence in him showing up for this game. If you want to back James delivering another masterclass performance, you can take him for 30 points at +190 on DraftKings and 35 points at +480 on FanDuel.
Pick: LeBron James Over 25.5 Points (-135 at DraftKings)
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