The Denver Nuggets earned the top seed in the Western Conference. They also were slight favorites (-145 to -155) to win this series. However, not many expected the Nuggets to be in position to sweep this series, particularly after a Game 1 where the Lakers gained momentum late following a second half rally.
Two-time MVP Nikola Jokic has been dominant in this series, but the Nuggets would not be up 3-0 without Jamal Murray. Murray is averaging 35 points per game in this series, but he hasn't just been one-dimensional.
The Nuggets are one away game away from the NBA Finals, but close-out games are never easy, particularly when facing LeBron James. In his career, James has been swept in a playoff series just twice. He may need a vintage performance to pull out a win, but he will also need a bit of help from Austin Reaves on the perimeter.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Jamal Murray Over 10.5 Rebounds + Assists (-135)
| Spread | Lakers -3.5 |
| Time | TV | 8:30 p.m. ET | ESPN |
| Best Line | FanDuel |
This postseason, Murray is averaging 5.6 rebounds per game. Over his last 10 games, he has grabbed at least four rebounds in every game and five rebounds in seven of the 10 games. Over the past two games, he has had 17 combined rebounds. As a result, his rebounds line has moved from 4.5 to 5.5 as well.
As the point guard of the NBA's best offense in the playoffs, Murray gets several assist opportunities as well. Many come off the two-man game with Jokic. The Nuggets offense has a myriad of other dangerous weapons, including shooters Michael Porter Jr. and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope as well as cutters such as Aaron Gordon and Bruce Brown. Murray is usually in the neighborhood of five assists, and he has reached five dimes in nine of his last 10 games while averaging six assists in that span.
Murray is averaging a combined 11.9 total rebounds and assists this postseason, which he has increased to 12.7 rebounds and assists in this series. He has hit this line in seven of his past 10 and finished with 10 total rebounds plus assists in another. If you catch this line at 11.5, I would be comfortable playing it there as well.
Pick: Jamal Murray Over 10.5 Rebounds + Assists |
Austin Reaves Over 17.5 Points (-104)
| Spread | Lakers -3 |
| Time | TV | 8:30 p.m. ET | ESPN |
| Best Line | FanDuel |
Austin Reaves has been one of the lone bright spots for the Lakers in this series. His points line has been in the mid-teens for all three games, but he has blown past it with 22 or 23 points in all three games. Dating back to the Western Conference Semifinals series against the Warriors, Reaves has scored 20 points in five of his last six games. A mixture of volume and efficiency has helped Reaves sustain this level of production.
In this series, Reaves is averaging 13.3 field goal attempts per game and shooting 55% from the field. He has done much of his damage from beyond the arc. Reaves is shooting 56.5% from 3 in this series on 7.7 attempts per game. Reaves has made at least three 3s in each of the last six games.
The Oklahoma Sooner is playing 39 minutes per game in this series, and I don't see that changing barring foul trouble or injury. D'Angelo Russell has been virtually unplayable in this series, and Monday night might be the game where he is benched. LeBron James will be on the floor and has scored at least 20 points in 14 of 15 games this postseason. However, he has yet to score more than 30 points in any playoff game, so Reaves will need to play a key scoring role.
Then there is the curious case of Anthony Davis. He scored 40 points in Game 1 and 28 in Game 3. He also scored 18 points on 4-for-15 shooting from the field in Game 2. Given his trends this postseason, Davis is due for an off night, but I am laying off the under because this is a matchup he should dominate like in Games 1 and 3. However, if the Lakers are going to have someone perform above expectation, Reaves may be the most likely candidate.
Pick: Austin Reaves Over 17.5 Points |
