Saturday features a relatively small five-game NBA slate, but still a plethora of player props to choose from. There are three NBA player props today on the board that look fantastic in our NBA Model for March 4.
Coincidentally, they're all under the prop line for each of these players: Trae Young, Jrue Holiday, and Jeremy Sochan.
Let's dive into today's NBA player props!
NBA Player Props & Picks
Trae Young, Under 10.5 Assists (-122)
| Spread | Heat -1.5 |
| Time | TV | 8 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass |
| Best Line | FanDuel Sportsbook |
The Atlanta Hawks have won three of their last four games since the All-Star break but now go on the road in a hostile environment against the Miami Heat. Both teams rank just outside the top six in the Eastern Conference standings with roughly 20 games left. The Heat are favored at home by a bucket tonight.
Since the break, Trae Young has been on a scoring spree, averaging 30.5 points per game with a ridiculous 37.7% usage rate. However, he has only recorded double-digit assists in one of those four games, while averaging 8.8 per game. With a 111.25 implied point total, assists may be tough in this spot.
The Heat rank fifth in Defensive Rating while only allowing 108.8 points per game, which ranks as the second-best in the league. They also play at the third-slowest pace, so this could end up being a slug fest. Young hasn't fared too well in this matchup in the past, recording double-digit assists in only two of his last 13 games. In his career against the Heat, he is averaging 8.3 per game.
Our NBA Model has Young projected for only 9.5 assists, which is a full assist lower than his player prop. Reaching 11 assists against one of the league's elite defenses is a tough task. I would even take this under down to 9.5 assists in this difficult matchup. Young may score, but that is too many dimes to drop.
Pick: Trae Young Under 10.5 Assists (Play to Under 9.5) |
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Jeremy Sochan, Under 23.5 Points and Rebounds (-111)
| Spread | Rockets -1 |
| Time | TV | 8 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass |
| Best Line | FanDuel Sportsbook |
The battle for the worst team in the Western Conference will be put on display tonight with the San Antonio Spurs hosting the Houston Rockets. The Rockets are one-point road favorites in this battle for Victor Wembanyama. Not many eyes will be watching this game, but there is a player prop worth targeting.
One of the best player props on the board is Jeremy Sochan under points and rebounds. This may feel a little risky due to the Spurs playing without Devin Vassell while Keldon Johnson is also doubtful. Sochan has played well recently, but our NBA Model has him projected for 19.9 points and rebounds tonight.
Despite ranking 29th in Defensive Rating, the Rockets lead the league in Rebounding Percentage (52.9%) entering tonight's games. They also rank sixth in points allowed in the paint with only 47.9 per game. The Rockets may have the worst record in the league, but they seem to defend the paint well.
It seems a little surprising the Rockets are only one-point road favorites, as they got back Kevin Porter Jr. and Jalen Green from injury. Alperen Sengun has also been a monster in the middle. This is a back-to-back for both teams as they will play each other again tomorrow, but in Houston. For tonight, take the under on Sochan — and I would take this under even at 21.5 points and rebounds.
Pick: Jeremy Sochan Under 23.5 Points+Rebounds |
Jrue Holiday, Under 1.5 Steals and Blocks (-145)
| Spread | Bucks -4.5 |
| Time | TV | 8:30 p.m. ET | ABC |
| Best Line | DraftKings Sportsbook |
Winners of 16 consecutive games, the Milwaukee Bucks will face one of their tougher tests all season against the Philadelphia 76ers. The Bucks lead the league with a 45-17 record, as they are an impressive 27-5 at home this season. Fully healthy as well, the Bucks are 4.5-point home favorites tonight.
This matchup features two of the best defenses in the league, as they both rank inside the top five in points allowed. Jrue Holiday is known as an elite individual defender, but he will have his hands full with James Harden. Despite how good Holiday is defensively, he has had difficulty accumulating steals.
Holiday is averaging only 1.2 steals per game, which is the lowest number since his rookie season. Over his last 15 games, Holiday has recorded two or more steals in only four games and has had no blocks in 13 of those 15. According to our NBA Model, this under steals and blocks is the best prop on the board.
When looking at the individual matchup between Holiday and Harden, the edge has significantly gone to Harden. He has over 30 points in seven of his last eight games, while Holiday has captured two or more steals and blocks once in their last five matchups. The 76ers have also only allowed 6.7 steals per game, which is tied for the fourth-lowest in the league this season.
