The NBA returns tonight with All-Star Weekend now behind us. With Indiana hosting, Pacers star Tyrese Haliburton enjoyed a great weekend as Team Pacers won the Skills Challenge and he participated in the 3-Point Contest on Saturday. However, despite a great performance in the All-Star Game, he did not take home MVP. He will have the opportunity to take out his frustration on the Pistons tonight.
Luka Doncic never goes full force in the All-Star Game, but we know he is one of the best scorers in the league. He will look to take advantage of another matchup against the Suns.
However, first we will begin in Cleveland where Moritz Wagner will look to provide a spark off the bench as his Magic visit the Cavaliers.
Let's dive into my top three NBA player props for Thursday, February 22.
You will not find many more favorable trends for a prop this season. Moritz Wagner is averaging 11.1 points per game and hit this line at a 77% clip. More recently, he is averaging 10.2 points per game over his last 10 games. In that span, he has gone over this line in nine of those games and scored 10 points in seven of them. Tonight, we just need seven points.
The catch is the Cavaliers present a difficult matchup. They are second in scoring defense and they are also allowing the sixth-fewest points per game to centers. Of course, the Cavaliers have Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley roaming the paint. Head coach J.B. Bickerstaff does stagger his bigs but as the backup center, Wagner may not have to deal with them on the floor much at the same time. It is something he has taken advantage of in the past.
Wagner went over this line five of his last six games and each in his first three meetings against Cleveland this season. He scored 11 and 15 points in two of those games. His minutes will be something to monitor as well. He has played between 18 and 21 minutes in the three meetings against Cleveland this season, but he is down to 16.3 minutes per game over his last 10 games. However, as noted above, it has not stopped him from hitting this line.
Additionally, Wagner has scored seven points in eight of his past 10 games when playing 14-plus minutes. He is shooting nearly 59% from the field this season and also getting to the free throw line about three times per game. If Wagner gets the opportunity tonight, seven points should be fairly easy cash.
Pick: Moritz Wagner Over 6.5 Points (-125)
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Speaking with Taylor Rooks at All-Star Weekend, Tyrese Hailburton was reliving his draft night. The Pistons had the chance to take Haliburton with the seventh overall pick in the 2020 NBA Draft, but passed in favor of Killian Hayes. Haliburton said it felt personal and he seems to enjoy making sure the Pistons regret their decision when he faces them.
In seven career games against the Pistons, Haliburton is averaging 16 points and 11 assists per game. In his past four games against them, he is averaging 20.7 points and 13.2 assists per game. Haliburton has hit this line in three of those games and finished with 30 points and assists combined in the other. The Pistons present a great matchup for him as they are allowing the second-most points and the sixth-most assists per game to point guards. They are also 24th in 3-point percentage defense with Haliburton averaging 3.2 made threes per game while shooting 40%.
Haliburton also went into the All-Star Break with momentum as he has hit this line in two of his past three games. That coincides with him being off his minutes restriction as he recovered from hamstring injury. Haliburton has played 34 minutes in each of his past two games and 30 minutes in each of his last three.
First game out of the break, Haliburton may not play 34 minutes again as teams ramp back up. However, 30 minutes should be enough. When playing 30 minutes this season, he has hit this line 21-of-31 games (68%) and averaging 37.6 points and assists per game.
Pick: Tyrese Haliburton Over 32.5 Points + Assists (-106)
Luka Doncic has already scored 40 points 10 times this season. He has also 35 points in 21 games this season. I bring this up because that means he could hit this line with just his points. He has already done so against the Suns as he scored 50 points against them on Christmas. We backed him in the next matchup against the Suns and he scored 34 points against them. He has scored 33 points in each of the last five games that he has finished against Phoenix.
However, Doncic not grabbing a rebound is also highly unlikely as he is one of the better rebounding guards in the league. He is averaging 8.9 rebounds per game this season and has had eight rebounds in each of his past 10 games. The Suns are not an easy matchup for rebounds as they are allowing the fourth-fewest rebounds per game. However, Doncic had eight rebounds in the last meeting and he has six rebounds in the last five games that he finished against the Suns.
Though Doncic's 50-point game came with Kyrie Irving sidelined, Irving's presence is a benefit tonight. With Irving on the floor, it will be harder for the Suns to blitz Doncic and force the ball out of his hands. He should also help keep the game closer as the Suns pulled away in the second half for a 23-point win. Doncic is also averaging 31.8 points per game with Irving in the lineup.
Doncic has hit this line in six of his last 10 games while averaging 46.4 points and rebounds per game in that span. He had exactly 40 in one of those games and this line is 40.5 on FanDuel at -118 odds. Given the similar odds, it makes more sense to pivot to DraftKings, but Doncic may wind up soaring over this line against the Suns again.
Pick: Luka Doncic Over 39.5 Points + Rebounds (-115)
